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2026 midterm elections

The midterms may not rewrite the investment playbook, but they could reshape where investors find opportunity.

Voters want change, but markets prefer gridlock

Increasing voter frustration and historical election patterns point toward divided government, an outcome that has often meant fewer sweeping policy changes. What's that mean for investors?

How to position portfolios for divided government

This election season, investors may find more value in targeted policy themes than in a simple “red versus blue” market playbook.

1

AI/Technology: Bipartisan support and its capital spending cycle should continue to support AI despite rising regulatory scrutiny.

2

Financials: Regulatory continuity, combined with potential capital rule relief and strong earnings momentum, could support Financials and banks.

3

Defense: Geopolitical risk, rearmament needs, and defense modernization should keep spending on an upward path.

4

Energy: As energy politics shift from production toward power demand, the Energy opportunity set could change.

5

Macro regime: A divided Congress is unlikely to resolve fiscal, inflation, interest rate, or policy risks, reinforcing the case for multi asset diversification.

Webinar

Sign up to attend a LIVE webinar on October 6 with political strategists David Axelrod and Karl Rove, moderated by Michael Arone.

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