1

AI fails to scale

AI fails to scale

If constraints such as semiconductor shortages, energy supply limits, and regulatory barriers converge, this could upend the projected narrative for AI. 

2

China goes shopping

China goes shopping

What if the world’s largest exporter abruptly became its most voracious shopper, in a calculated move to deescalate mounting trade rifts with Europe and emerging markets?

3

Fortress North America

Fortress North America

In this Grey Swan, rather than let USMCA collapse, the US renegotiates an integrated trade and economic framework that binds it more closely to Canada and Mexico.

4

Oil rockets toward $100 barrier

Oil rockets toward $100 barrier

With prices down to around $60-65/bbl, the broad consensus for oil remains neutral-to-bearish. But what if oil prices didn’t behave as expected, and spike toward triple figures?

5

Yen carry unwind

Yen carry unwind

How would it play out if policy normalization in Japan happens faster than anticipated, and the yen carry trade unwinds?

6

Sovereign bond shock

Sovereign bond shock

What if sovereign debt sustainability were to lead to stress in government bond markets?  We outline scenarios that could arise in this Grey Swan.