How can fantasy football help investors manage portfolios?
Track shifting investor sentiment through our latest ETF flows analysis.
Every fantasy football season starts the same: draft boards arrive, rankings are dissected, podcasts multiply, and everyone becomes an expert on sleepers, busts, schedules, coaching tendencies, and obscure metrics like average depth of target (aDOT).
That’s where fantasy managers get into trouble. The challenge isn’t identifying good players—it’s resisting the urge to outsmart themselves. While everyone hunts for the next sleeper, proven performers are overlooked for being too obvious.
We assume a quarterback with consecutive 4,000-yard seasons will decline because of a new coordinator or a few uncertain headlines, while imagining one who has never reached that mark is suddenly destined for stardom.
Instead of trusting the fundamentals, we search for reasons they no longer apply.
Markets feel similar today. Investors face interventionist US Treasury policies, state capitalism in critical technology and energy markets, geopolitical tensions, questions about central bank independence, AI-driven credit issuance, and midterm elections. Every headline offers another reason risk assets should stumble.
Last month, did ETF investors chase the breakout star or stick with proven players?
Record pace continues in August
August ETF inflows are historically some of the weakest out of any month, on average, running 20% below typical monthly flows and having the second-lowest historical monthly average (+$48 billion). August 2026 inflows bucked that trend.
Last month, US-listed ETFs took in $180 billion, on par with the $175 billion monthly pace this year. That’s 3.8x August’s historical average and more than this year’s average 3.5x monthly increase.
Without the traditional August dip, ETF inflows enter the final four months of 2026 with a chance to obliterate prior annual records. Based on various model inputs, there is a potential for US-listed ETFs to register $2.3 trillion of inflows this year.
The strong August and full-year inflows are supported by both expanding ETF usage and supportive market returns. Buoyed by market returns, equity ETFs attracted over $100 billion for a fifth consecutive month, with inflows across all major regions. Bond ETFs gathered over $50 billion for a fourth consecutive month in August, bringing 2026 inflows to $407 billion—just below 2025’s record $448 billion.
Big picture? ETF buying behavior has sidestepped macro uncertainty in a year when an equal-weighted mixture of global stocks, bonds, and commodities is up and above the return on cash in 2026.
Inflation resilience continues to be the pick
Gold ETFs rebounded with $8 billion of inflows in August and the totals are now positive year to date. Along with $1.4 billion into broad commodity ETFs, the overall commodity category attracted $11 billion last month.
Other inflation-sensitive assets were also in demand, with inflation-linked bond ETFs gathering $2 billion. Given the focus on stubborn inflation, widening fiscal deficits, supply-chain disruptions, and currency-debasement concerns, these flows are not surprising.
For broad commodity exposures, August inflows pushed the 2026 total above $6 billion and marked the seventh month of inflows this year. That run has put 2026 on pace to set a full-year record and surpass the $8 billion gathered in 2021.
Rolling three-month flows for both broad commodity and inflation-linked bonds are positive and have been for some time. Both have consistently navigated above their historical averages this year (Figure 1).
In fact, the two have now been positive for the past 14 observable periods, a new record that eclipses the inflation-resilient buying behavior in 2022.
Not just an America’s game for equities
In notional terms, US-focused ETFs dominated August inflows, attracting $75 billion. Yet, relative to their asset base, their share of flows was below their share of assets (70% versus 79%). This continues a trend seen throughout 2026, with US-focused ETFs accounting for just 65% of all equity inflows as investors have increasingly grabbed their passports and favored greater regional diversification amid the shift toward a greater fragmented macro backdrop.
Figure 2: Geographic flows
| In millions ($) | August | Year-to-date | Trailing 3-month | Trailing 12-month | Year-to-date (% of AUM) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| US | 74,501 | 609,467 | 279,245 | 949,808 | 7.18% |
| Global | 5,189 | 65,672 | 15,716 | 92,899 | 23.51% |
| International: Developed | 13,466 | 129,615 | 43,997 | 186,577 | 11.66% |
| International: Emerging markets | 5,651 | 50,605 | 14,399 | 72,422 | 13.64% |
| International: Region | 1,675 | 4,008 | 2,367 | 10,598 | 4.13% |
| International: Single country | 1,590 | 29,541 | 12,739 | 34,638 | 19.76% |
| Currency-hedged | 396 | 3,790 | 1,810 | 4,916 | 9.83% |
Source: Bloomberg Finance, L.P., State Street Investment Management, as of August 31, 2026. The top two/bottom two categories per period are highlighted. Performance data quoted represents past performance. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
Of the inflows into that non-US bucket, broad developed ex-US funds took in $14 billion in August and now have over $129 billion of inflows for the year. This breaks the full-year record from 2025, with four months left to go.
Emerging markets are another area of record-setting interest. The $6 billion of inflows in August pushed full-year totals to a new annual record of $50 billion, more than the $37 billion from 2017. Supportive market returns, improving earnings, connection to the AI-CapEx build out, and lower inflation risks than developed markets have helped drive these inflows.
Sectors sacked in August
Sector flows reversed in August. After record July inflows, Tech lost $6 billion, while Financials shed $5 billion; together, they accounted for 132% of sector outflows. Tech’s reversal was unsurprising after July’s record inflows and weak returns, even as AI-driven earnings and headlines lifted the sector nearly 6% in August.1
Financials’ outflows were more puzzling: the category lost assets on 15 of 21 trading days despite strong earnings, robust capital-markets activity, and potential bank-capital relief. Profit-taking may explain the selling after three months of inflows and 6% outperformance.2 With fundamentals intact, Financials could rebound in September.
Figure 3: Sector flows
| In millions ($) | August | Year-to-date | Trailing 3-month | Trailing 12-month | Year-to-date (% of AUM) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Technology | -6,118 | 60,002 | 25,653 | 64,864 | 17.10% |
| Financial | -4,851 | -3,169 | 776 | -5,405 | -3.32% |
| Health Care | 2,235 | 5,480 | 6,675 | 10,520 | 5.97% |
| Consumer Discretionary | 707 | -1,612 | -410 | -1,816 | -3.99% |
| Consumer Staples | -259 | -1,423 | -1,153 | -2,123 | -5.67% |
| Energy | -243 | 9,359 | -3,095 | 8,951 | 15.30% |
| Materials | 842 | 6,348 | 1,037 | 11,280 | 9.14% |
| Industrials | 137 | 10,921 | 3,077 | 17,374 | 15.42% |
| Real Estate | -78 | 4,260 | 2,493 | 6,905 | 6.25% |
| Utilities | -191 | -410 | 630 | 1,445 | -1.10% |
| Communications | -451 | -3,014 | -1,795 | -1,983 | -8.28% |
Source: Bloomberg Finance, L.P., State Street Investment Management, as of August 31, 2026. The top two/bottom two categories per period are highlighted. Performance data quoted represents past performance. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
Health Care led with $2.2 billion of inflows as the sector gained 5% in August and 16% over three months.3 Biotech ETFs captured 55% of those flows ($1.2 billion).
Interest in biotech reflects AI’s potential to improve target discovery, trial selection, and R&D efficiency. M&A may add support as large drugmakers seek differentiated therapies, though benefits will vary by company. The resurgence of biotech-related ETF flows is more apparent on a rolling-three-month basis. After being largely dormant for all of 2024 and most of 2025, inflows have recently spiked.
Don’t try to outsmart the draft board!
Much like fantasy football owners poring over endless reams of data within spreadsheets, investors can fall into the trap of becoming so focused on what might go wrong that they lose sight of what's going right.
When I step back and look at the scoreboard rather than the headlines, the fundamentals paint an encouraging picture.
The US economy remains supported by the two pillars that matter most: consumption and investment. Corporate earnings are sending a similar signal, with double-digit growth coming from US large caps, US small caps, non-US equities, and emerging markets.
And investors appear to be paying attention. Despite a steady stream of macro concerns, ETF flows remain on a record-setting pace.
So, as we approach the final quarter of 2026, I'm reminded of the same lesson fantasy football managers relearn every fall. Don't overthink it and try to predict the next big breakout or bust. It rarely works, whether it’s for the core of your team or the core of your portfolio. For every sleeper pick that delivers on all the helium around them in August, there are 10 others that end up falling like a lead balloon.
When in doubt, take the best player available on the draft board. For portfolios, that means remaining invested, being diversified, and not moving to cash because a mid-term election is on the horizon. After all, resilient fundamental and economic growth are the Joe Burrow and Ja’Marr Chase stack strategy helping offset macro uncertainty.
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