SPDR® DoubleLine® Emerging Markets Fixed Income ETF (EMTL) – Q2 2023 Commentary
During the second quarter of 2023, SPDR® DoubleLine® Emerging Markets Fixed Income ETF (EMTL) returned 1.42% at NAV, outperforming the J.P. Morgan Corporate Emerging Markets Bond Index Broad Diversified (CEMBI BD) which returned 1.37%.
Performance
For the quarter ended June 30, 2023, the DoubleLine Emerging Markets Fixed Income ETF outperformed the 1.37% return of the J.P. Morgan Corporate Emerging Markets Bond Index Broad Diversified (CEMBI BD). Over the quarter, U.S. Treasury yields pushed higher across the curve, driven by hawkish U.S. Federal Reserve actions and guidance amid resilient economic data. Emerging markets (EM) sovereign and corporate bonds experienced spread tightening over the period, posting positive returns, with strength particularly coming from lower-rated credits. Credit spreads for the CEMBI BD tightened by 31 basis points (bps) and the J.P. Morgan Emerging Markets Bond Index Global Diversified (EMBI GD), which tracks sovereign bonds, tightened by 52 bps.1 The portfolio’s outperformance was attributed to its regional allocation. Throughout the quarter, the portfolio was overweight Latin American countries and underweight Asian countries. Latin America was the second-best performing region among its peers while Asia posted positive returns but was the weakest region within the index.2 In contrast, the portfolio maintained a longer duration than that of the index and was overweight investment grade credits in a period where high yield outperformed, which detracted from relative performance.
Fund Performance
| QTD | YTD |
1 Year |
3 Year |
5 Year |
10 Year |
Since Inception Apr 13 2016 |
|
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NAV | 1.42% | 3.52% | 3.63% | -1.76% | 0.83% | - | 2.01% |
| Market Value | 1.34% | 3.91% | 3.88% | -1.67% | 0.85% | - | 2.06% |
| JP Morgan Corporate Emerging Market Bond Index Broad Diversified | 1.37% | 3.64% | 5.66% | -0.52% | 2.40% | 3.55% | 2.99% |
Source: State Street Global Advisors, as of June 30, 2023. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance. Investment return and principal value will fluctuate, so you may have a gain or loss when shares are sold. Curent performance may be higher or lower than that quotes. All results are historical and assume the reinvestment of dividends and capital gains. Visit www.ssga.com for most recent month-end performance. The gross expense ratio is the fund’s total annual operating expense ratio. It is gross of any fee waivers or expense reimbursements. Performance returns for periods of less than one year are not annualized. The market price used to calculate the Market Value return is the midpoint between the highest bid and the lowest offer on the exchange on which the shares of the fund are listed for trading, as of the time that the fund’s NAV is calculates. If you trade your shares at another time, your returns may differ. It is not possible to invest directly in an index. Index performance does not reflect charges and expenses associated with the fund or brokerage commissions associated with buying and selling a fund. Index performance is not meant to represent that of any particular fund.
Gross Expense Ratio: 0.65% Net Expense Ratio: 0.65%
Second Quarter Fund Positioning
- The duration of the fund shortened by 0.64 years to finish the quarter at 4.97 years.
- The fund’s portfolio increased its exposure to corporates while reducing its allocation to sovereign debt and cash.
Country and Region Weights
| Country | Weight (%) |
|---|---|
| Mexico | 11.40 |
| Peru | 10.70 |
| Chile | 9.10 |
| Indonesia | 8.60 |
| Singapore | 8.50 |
| Colombia | 8.40 |
| Panama | 7.70 |
| India | 7.60 |
| Brazil | 6.20 |
| Israel | 3.50 |
| Korea | 3.10 |
| Saudi Arabia | 2.30 |
| United Arab Emirates | 2.20 |
| Kuwait | 1.70 |
| Guatemala | 1.70 |
| Paraguay | 1.30 |
| South Africa | 1.10 |
| Philippines | 0.50 |
| Malaysia | 0.20 |
| Cash & Accrued | 4.40 |
| Total | 100 |
| Region | Weight (%) |
|---|---|
| Latin America and Caribbean | 56.50 |
| Asia | 28.40 |
| Africa And The Middle East | 10.70 |
| Cash & Accrued | 4.40 |
| Total | 100 |
Source: DoubleLine, State Street Global Advisors, as of June 30, 2023. Allocations are as of the date given and should not be relied upon as current thereafter.
Fund Positioning and Outlook
Broadly speaking, DoubleLine expects global financial markets to stay stable through the third quarter of 2023. Leading indicators continue to point toward rising recession risks however; and restrictive monetary policy is likely to persist until economic data, which currently show signs of continued labor market strength and persistent wage growth, begin to deteriorate. On average, EM corporates have shown resiliency. While we expect to see limited improvement in the fundamental picture of EM corporates in the second half of the year, we note that EM corporate fundamentals started on solid footing heading into 2023 and as such, we expect EM corporates to remain resilient in the face of a challenging macro backdrop. The portfolio will maintain its significant underweight to Eastern Europe while continuing to favor Latin America as we believe the region offers attractive yield opportunities in credits that have strong fundamentals and stands to benefit from being low-cost commodity exporters and hard currency generators. In our view, risk appetite in 2023 will be driven by expectations around the duration of central banks’ monetary-policy tightening cycles, global growth and inflation concerns, China’s reopening from COVID-19 restrictions, and spillovers from the Russia-Ukraine war. Other factors to watch include China-Taiwan tension, stress in the global banking sector and the Chinese property sector.