A look at quarterly measures of inflation based on prices from millions of items sold by online retailers to help investors anticipate and evaluate the impact of inflation.
US – Inflation Inflection Points
PriceStats suggests that US inflation was unseasonably robust in Q4. In addition to the collapse in energy prices in 2018 dropping out of the inflation calculation, this has prompted an abrupt turnaround in the annual inflation rate. Headline and core inflation rates will now converge above 2%, begging the question of whether both will remain below 2.5% for the first half of 2020.
Eurozone – Disinflation Is Over
The starting point for eurozone inflation is much lower, but the trend acceleration is similar. This is partly, but not entirely, due to base effects. Having run below the official series for more than a year, PriceStats now suggests that eurozone disinflation is over.
Emerging Markets – Signs of an Uptick in Q4
Declining official inflation and even currency stability and appreciation provided the cover for some significant interest rate reductions in emerging markets in the past year. PriceStats data, however, suggests that the run of lower inflation readings is unlikely to last in 2020.
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