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Market Forecasts: Q3 2025 July 2025

Chief Economist
Portfolio Manager

Global Economic Outlook

  • Uncertainty around what the final tariff landscape will look like has shrouded the near-term outlook. However, all parties are motivated to reach trade agreements and we are optimistic on medium-term prospects.
  • Despite a Q1 GDP contraction, the US economy will likely still generate higher growth for 2025 than nearly all its peers. We see growth improving in 2026, both in the US and in Europe, as more supportive policies take hold and the uncertainty cloud thins.
  • We project 75bps of US Fed cuts this year. After 100 bps of cuts by the ECB in 2025 already, we don’t think they need to do more. Meanwhile, the Bank of Japan may hold for the rest of the year, while we expect the Bank of England to play catch-up with more rate cuts.

Global Capital Markets Outlook

  • In recent months, cross asset measures of market sentiment have moved in parallel with policy uncertainty indices, suggesting politics and policy have played an outsized role. While we expect policy changes to continue to influence markets, we think corporate fundamentals will re-exert their influence on market direction.
  • We see the best directional opportunities in taking long positions in commodity and gold markets. In equities, we expect US markets to outperform international markets from a relative value perspective.
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Market Forecasts: Q3 2025

Our quarterly Market Forecasts publication captures the economic and market views of State Street Investment Management. To explore our forecasts further, please download the full PDF.

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