When we last published quarterly forecasts in December, the consensus view was that Omicron was the most prominent risk to the outlook. We argued at the time that this was a misperception insofar as Omicron would fade fairly quickly but would leave in its wake a more lasting challenge: global central banks poised to unwind the enormous liquidity support provided since the start of the Covid crisis.
Until the invasion of Ukraine, much of the economic debate and market moves this year were indeed dominated by expectations around this impending policy tightening. The invasion of Ukraine briefly derailed those expectations but as of this writing market pricing for rate hikes is essentially back to (if not even more aggressive) than where it was in mid-February.
