Inflation shows signs of slowing, but has not been tamed just yet. And with the prospects of a grim earnings season, equity market volatility may spike. As market sentiment continues to swing, consider a blended factor approach to balance downside risks and upside potential.
This article was written with contributions from Federico Burroni. Federico is a Research Analyst on the SPDR Americas Research Team.
The S&P 500® Index continued on a positive trajectory, adding 2.7% last week. This reverses the trend from the end of 2022, when the index posted negative returns for three weeks in a row. Oil gained 8.3% last week.1 It has been buoyed by China easing COVID restrictions, which has improved the expectations for a demand recovery.
Eurozone unemployment remained at 6.5% in November, staying steady at October’s record low.2 In the UK, recession worries eased a bit as gross domestic product (GDP) grew 0.1% in November. This beat economists’ expectations of a 0.2% contraction.
Despite speculation for a hawkish surprise, the Bank of Japan (BoJ) kept its negative rate at -0.10%, leaving interest rates negative for more than six years.
Some of the largest US banks kicked off earnings season last week as JPMorgan Chase CEO Jamie Dimon warned of a modest deterioration in the macroeconomic outlook.
The University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index climbed to 64.6 in January — rising more than 8% since December to a nine-month high.3 On Wednesday, the US Census Bureau reported a slowdown in December retail sales, providing a glimpse of weaker spending trends over the holiday season.
The Producer Price Index (PPI), which tracks inflation from the perspective of manufacturers and wholesalers, decelerated to 6.2% year over year in December.4 Meanwhile, on an annual basis, headline Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose 6.5% in December.5 This is the smallest year-over-year increase since October 2021.
While December CPI shows a further slowdown in inflation, it is still too early for the Federal Reserve to claim victory over inflation. Core CPI remains at 5.7%, well above its pre-pandemic average of 2%.6 And with earnings for the S&P 500 Index expected to drop 4.1% for Q4 2022,7 a grim earnings season may drive equity market volatility. As market sentiment continues to swing between hope and fear, investors are likely to seek a way to balance both downside risks and upside potential.
The SPDR® MSCI USA StrategicFactorsSM ETF (QUS) blends Value, Quality, and Low-volatility factors into a single strategy. Each factor has a role to play:
QUS Demonstrated Stronger Performance and Higher Sharpe Ratio
Since its inception, QUS ranks in the top 11% of Morningstar category peers based on annualized returns, and top 6% of peers based on Sharpe ratio.10 It has also displayed more upside capture than single-factor Low-volatility funds (93% versus 80%), while exhibiting 3.05% less max drawdown than broad equities.11
QUS Standard Performance as of December 31, 2022