When entering the site and if cookies are prevented from being saved, a message must be displayed
in a popup message box informing the user that their local browser settings are preventing
cookies from being saved and that cookies are required for the site to work. Exact text
to be provided for UAT. On OK click of the message, the user should be redirected to
the global landing page (currently ssga.com).
What strategies can be implemented to mitigate – or in some cases, harness – the impacts of inflation on a portfolio. Matthew Bartolini takes a look in his latest post.
Inflation has spent more time below 2% than above it over the past 10 years,1 yet we are often asked what strategies can be implemented to mitigate – or in some cases, harness – the impacts of inflation on a portfolio. And now the calls for an inflationary playbook have indeed grown louder considering that:
Treasury Inflation-Protected Securities (TIPS) outperforming nominal Treasuries for five consecutive months to register a cumulative outperformance of 6.1% since the end of March;
CPI rebounding off April lows for the past three months and;
Breakeven rates rallying from 0.47% to 1.66% since March
We spoke about the prospects for inflationary pressures in our Q1 Bond Compass as well as in our Midyear Outlook, largely focusing on the relative value role TIPS could play in a portfolio. But there are more tactics in the inflationary playbook that can be called upon, given that:
A dovish Federal Reserve has expanded its balance sheet from 19% of GDP at the start of the year to 33%, and they continue to purchase individual bonds and other financial instruments
Fiscal stimulus has increased the deficit to -15% of GDP from -4.7% at the start of the year, with more spending likely, with Treasury issuance funding the current and the potential next round of stimulus
These emerging catalysts may provide extra inflationary tailwinds:
Both US presidential campaigns’ policy frameworks call for increased spending – albeit with different spending benefactors
After a yearlong listening tour on a review of its policies, the Federal Reserve may relax its preference for a 2% inflation threshold,2 indicating that the Fed could let inflation run higher than the 2% under a recovery scenario
The inflation playbook
There are two types of plays in this playbook: offense and defense. For the latter, this means seeking out exposures that may mitigate the impacts of inflation’s erosion of principal. The former represents exposures that may benefit from a higher inflationary regime as a result of firm operating profiles and revenue-generation potential.
For inflation mitigation, the first strategy would be to consider selling nominal Treasury exposure for TIPS. The thesis here is that the current policy response is similar to the one that was implemented during the GFC crisis — and post-GFC TIPS began to outpace nominal US Treasuries. From mid-2009 through 2012, TIPS outperformed nominals in 60% of the months by an average of 30 basis points.3 Outside of any ability to go long/short, swapping nominal exposure for TIPS may be an efficient way to capture this premium – either completely or through a blend (i.e., 50%/50%). Adding TIPS without reducing nominal exposure will unintentionally extend a portfolio’s duration profile and dilute the potential relative value opportunity, as duration effects will be the predominant driver of risk and return of this trade. After all, TIPS are still bonds.
Gold is another often discussed potential inflation mitigator. However, the timeframe is important for gold. Gold may mitigate the effects of inflation over a long time period, as a result of its potential as a store of value and its ability to keep up with price fluctuations in conjunction with currency depreciation over the long run – one reason why we continue to discuss its strategic role in portfolios . In the short-term, however, other macro factors (rates, dollar) could impact the spot price irrespective of inflation in isolation. Right now, however, given that higher inflation is occurring with no movement in nominal yields, real yields have fallen, and that has been a benefit to the spot price – and real rates have historically been a strong driver in the short-to-medium term for gold.
Hot routes for inflation Harnessing the impacts of inflation largely falls to examining equity exposures containing firms with commodity-related operations. As shown below, across the 11 GICS sectors, three of the top four segments with the highest sensitivity to breakeven inflation rates have business lines related to natural resources. Financials have the second-highest sensitivity, given the historical impact inflation has on interest rates and the high sensitivity financials have toward rates. With respect to commodity- related areas, higher inflation may lead to higher commodity prices, while also coinciding with an uptick in demand for natural resources as a result of one of the catalysts of inflation being increased spending. That uptick in demand may further increase the underlying commodity prices, potentially generating higher profits for those natural resource companies, which may then translate into higher returns.
Source: Bloomberg Finance L.P., as of 08/17/2020 based on stock returns for the S&P 500 GICS sectors versus 10-Year Breakeven Inflation Rates from 08/2015 with weekly granularity.
Targeting the more specific segments of natural resource producers while also broadening the scope to include mid- and small-cap firms is likely to improve a portfolio’s sensitivity to inflation. Going further down the cap spectrum also leads to obtaining exposure to firms with potentially higher sensitivity than that of large-cap firms. This is due to their business operations being less diversified than those of larger firms — and therefore, likely more reliant on the spot price of a commodity. Smaller firms also have a tendency to have higher leverage ratios. This is evident in the chart below, which examines the average beta sensitivity to breakeven rates of the firms within the S&P Metals & Mining Select Industry Index – a targeted segment of the Materials sector. An equal-weighted approach to industry investing may allow investors to harness the higher sensitivity without shouldering excessive single-stock risk.
Source: Bloomberg Finance L.P., as of 08/17/2020 based on stock returns for the S&P Metals & Mining Select Industry Index broken out by market cap definitions versus 10-Year Breakeven Inflation Rates from 08/2015 with weekly granularity.
When running the same five-year beta sensitivity for more granular industries, as well as targeted resource producers, the sensitivity for those narrower segments increased above broader sectors as a result of the forces discussed earlier. As a result, for investors seeking to play offense with inflation, focusing on some of these segments may be beneficial.
Source: Bloomberg Finance L.P., as of 08/17/2020 based on stock returns for the S&P Oil & Gas Equipment Services Select Industry Index, S&P Oil & Gas Exploration & Production Select Industry Index, S&P Metals & Mining Select Industry Index, S&P Regional Bank Select Industry Index, S&P Bank Select Industry Index, S&P Homebuilders Select Industry Index, S&P Aerospace & Defense Select Industry Index, S&P Transportation Select Industry Index, S&P Global Natural Resources Index, and S&P North American Natural Resources Index versus 10-Year Breakeven Inflation Rates from 08/2015 with weekly granularity.
To pare back core allocations and add inflation satellites, consider:
Style exposures can have inflationary relationships. As shown below, small-cap and value-oriented strategies have had the stronger sensitivity over the past five years. Value’s metrics relative to growth are indeed higher at each cap spectrum. This makes sense, to a degree, as higher inflation typically coincides with higher economic growth and, therefore, higher bond yields — both of which have a strong connection with cyclically oriented value and small-cap exposures. Similarly, inflation can be problematic for growth investing. Growth investing translates into paying X for Y amount of growth and if inflation meaningfully increases, the value of that future growth that you are paying an elevated X for today is then reduced.
Source: Bloomberg Finance L.P., as of 08/17/2020 based on stock returns for the mentioned style indices versus 10-Year Breakeven Inflation Rates from 08/2015 with weekly granularity.
Overweighting value, mid caps and small caps may be the play, depending on your investment thesis for inflation alongside a full-blown recovery. However, our current recovery is marked by transcendent and generation-defining socioeconomic shifts taking place as we adjust to a new digitally connected but physically separate world. Those shifts are likely to continue as our daily routines change, and they are likely to be driven by firms within certain sectors (Technology, Consumer Discretionary, and Communication Services) that are well represented in traditional growth exposures. Therefore, the historical uplift of inflation for value relative to growth may not be as strong as a result, leading to growth likely still outpacing value in the near term. Targeted sector and industry exposures, therefore, may be the more ideal inflationary offensive play call.
Opening the inflation playbook
We’ve dusted off the inflation playbook a handful of times over the past few years, most notably following the 2016 US presidential election, when hopes of infrastructure spending and lower taxes fueled a reflation trade. That was a bit short-lived, and running the playbook was akin to Charlie Brown trusting Lucy with the football again. This time, perhaps Charlie “Inflation” Brown will make contact with the pigskin and offensive and defensive inflationary play calls can add value to a portfolio. The four catalysts identified above are likely to help, as will any positive health news that leads to the global economy recovering more quickly.
For more insights on the current market, stay tuned to the SPDR Blog.
1 CPI YOY change has been below 2% 62% of the time from 2010–2020, per Bloomberg Finance L.P. data 2 “Fed Close to Making Its New Inflation Strategy Official”, Bloomberg 08/17/2020 3 Bloomberg Finance LP based on performance of the Bloomberg Barclays US Treasury Inflation Protected Index and Bloomberg Barclays US Treasury Index.
The views expressed in this material are the views of Matthew Bartolini through the period ended August 18th, 2020 and are subject to change based on market and other conditions. This document contains certain statements that may be deemed forward-looking statements. Please note that any such statements are not guarantees of any future performance and actual results or developments may differ materially from those projected.
Investing involves risk including the risk of loss of principal.
BLOOMBERG®, a trademark and service mark of Bloomberg Finance L.P. and its affiliates, and BARCLAYS®, a trademark and service mark of Barclays Bank Plc, have each been licensed for use in connection with the listing and trading of the SPDR Bloomberg Barclays ETFs.
The whole or any part of this work may not be reproduced, copied or transmitted or any of its contents disclosed to third parties without SSGA’s express written consent.
Bonds generally present less short-term risk and volatility than stocks, but contain interest rate risk (as interest rates rise, bond prices usually fall); issuer default risk; issuer credit risk; liquidity risk; and inflation risk. These effects are usually pronounced for longer-term securities. Any fixed income security sold or redeemed prior to maturity may be subject to a substantial gain or loss.
Non-diversified funds that focus on a relatively small number of securities tend to be more volatile than diversified funds and the market as a whole.
Increase in real interest rates can cause the price of inflation-protected debt securities to decrease. Interest payments on inflation-protected debt securities can be unpredictable.
Investments in asset backed and mortgage backed securities are subject to prepayment risk which can limit the potential for gain during a declining interest rate environment and increases the potential for loss in a rising interest rate environment.
ETFs trade like stocks, are subject to investment risk, fluctuate in market value and may trade at prices above or below the ETFs net asset value. Brokerage commissions and ETF expenses will reduce returns.
Standard & Poor's®, S&P® and SPDR® are registered trademarks of Standard & Poor's Financial Services LLC (S&P); Dow Jones is a registered trademark of Dow Jones Trademark Holdings LLC (Dow Jones); and these trademarks have been licensed for use by S&P Dow Jones Indices LLC (SPDJI) and sublicensed for certain purposes by State Street Corporation. State Street Corporation's financial products are not sponsored, endorsed, sold or promoted by SPDJI, Dow Jones, S&P, their respective affiliates and third party licensors and none of such parties make any representation regarding the advisability of investing in such product(s) nor do they have any liability in relation thereto, including for any errors, omissions, or interruptions of any index.
Distributor: State Street Global Advisors Funds Distributors, LLC, member FINRA, SIPC, an indirect wholly owned subsidiary of State Street Corporation. References to State Street may include State Street Corporation and its affiliates. Certain State Street affiliates provide services and receive fees from the SPDR ETFs. ALPS Distributors, Inc., member FINRA, is the distributor for DIA, MDY and SPY, all unit investment trusts. ALPS Portfolio Solutions Distributor, Inc., member FINRA, is the distributor for Select Sector SPDRs. ALPS Distributors, Inc. and ALPS Portfolio Solutions Distributor, Inc. are not affiliated with State Street Global Advisors Funds Distributors, LLC.
THIS SITE IS INTENDED FOR QUALIFIED INVESTORS ONLY.
No Offer/Local Restrictions
Nothing contained in or on the Site should be construed as a solicitation of an offer to buy or offer, or recommendation, to acquire or dispose of any security, commodity, investment or to engage in any other transaction. SSGA Intermediary Business offers a number of products and services designed specifically for various categories of investors. Not all products will be available to all investors. The information provided on the Site is not intended for distribution to, or use by, any person or entity in any jurisdiction or country where such distribution or use would be contrary to law or regulation.
All persons and entities accessing the Site do so on their own initiative and are responsible for compliance with applicable local laws and regulations. The Site is not directed to any person in any jurisdiction where the publication or availability of the Site is prohibited, by reason of that person's nationality, residence or otherwise. Persons under these restrictions must not access the Site.
Information for Non-U.S. Investors:
The products and services described on this web site are intended to be made available only to persons in the United States or as otherwise qualified and permissible under local law. The information on this web site is only for such persons. Nothing on this web site shall be considered a solicitation to buy or an offer to sell a security to any person in any jurisdiction where such offer, solicitation, purchase or sale would be unlawful under the securities laws of such jurisdiction.
Before investing, consider the funds' investment objectives, risks, charges and expenses. To obtain a prospectus or summary prospectus which contains this and other information, call 1-866-787-2257, download a prospectus or summary prospectus now, or talk to your financial advisor. Read it carefully before investing.
Not FDIC Insured * No Bank Guarantee * May Lose Value