Our longer-term asset class forecasts are forward-looking estimates of total return and risk premia, generated through a combined assessment of current valuation measures, economic growth, inflation prospects, ESG considerations, yield conditions as well as historical price patterns. We also include shorter-term return forecasts that incorporate output from our multi-factor tactical asset allocation models. Outlined below is the process we use to arrive at our return forecasts for the major asset classes.
The starting point for our nominal asset class return projections is an inflation forecast. We incorporate both estimates of long-term inflation and the inflation expectations implied in current bond yields. US Treasury Inflation-Protected Securities (TIPS) provide a market observation of the real yields that are available to investors. The difference between the nominal bond yield and the real bond yield at longer maturities furnishes a marketplace assessment of long-term inflation expectations.