While we certainly don’t want to sound like a broken record, we unfortunately, or fortunately since it means that the credit cycle has not come to an end, find ourselves in the same situation that we’ve been in at the end of the past two calendar years. As economic historians will tell you, recessions are typically caused by either tightening of monetary policy, tightening of fiscal policy, bursting of a credit or debt bubble, bursting of a housing or asset price bubble, and/or a banking crisis. We believe the risk of each of these is low in the near term. However, we believe that the risk of a cyclical downturn driven by an exogenous shock (for example, global trade uncertainty) is moderate. It is unclear if reactive monetary and/or fiscal policy would be able to provide enough of a buffer to prevent a recession and a pronounced downturn in the credit cycle.