Global Market Outlook Mid-Year 2019

Further to Run

GMO Mid-Year 2019


Despite trade risks, the economic cycle should continue given central banks’ accommodative policy stance.

Mid-Year Report 

June 2019

In This Issue

From the CIO

Look Beyond the Noise as the Cycle Extends

We believe the biggest lesson of the past 12 months is to look through the temporary noise and consider where fundamentals might be taking us over the longer term.

June 21, 2019 · By Rick Lacille





From the CIO

Macroeconomic Outlook

Policy Uncertainty Weighs on Global Economic Growth Prospects

While economic momentum has slowed and the trade war looms large, multiple signs of stabilization in the first half could, under the right conditions, keep global growth on track.

June 21, 2019 · By Simon Mocuta




Equities Outlook

Equity-Market Cycle Should Continue, With Spikes in Volatility

Macro factors should continue to support growth, but investors need to be cautious as volatility could easily spike given the significant geopolitical and growth risks facing the global economy.

June 21, 2019 · By Gaurav Mallik




Fixed Income Outlook

As the Credit Cycle Lengthens, Risks Build

With the Fed switching to a more dovish policy stance, this already lengthy cycle could extend further. Nonetheless, we would expect fatigue to set in eventually, not least because risks are building.

June 21, 2019 · By Matthew John Nest, Keith M. Snell and Aaron R. Hurd




Emerging Markets Outlook

Emerging-Market Giants Drive Growth Despite Trade Risk

China’s stimulus and the US Federal Reserve’s policy stance are creating conditions for better growth in emerging markets (EMs), despite the US-China trade war and still-strong US dollar. China and India are expected to drive EM and global growth in the coming years.

June 21, 2019 · By Laura Ann Ostrander




About the Global Market Outlook

As investment challenges grow more complex, our Global Market Outlook is designed to alert investors to portfolio risks and opportunities in the coming year, based on the research of our investment teams. Research around near-term and longer-term market issues is at the heart of who we are as investors. It drives the kinds of outcome-oriented portfolios we create for clients, drawing on the full range of our beta and alpha solutions as well as our asset-allocation expertise.

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