Global Market Outlook


GMO 2019

November 2018

Not Over Until It’s Over

After a year of trade wars, rate rises and more volatile markets, we see three big themes for equity markets over the next 12 months. 

In This Issue

Macroeconomic Outlook

Global growth slows, with trade wars the biggest risk

Trade policy is the single most important source of uncertainty and may act as a deterrent to both the capex wave already under way and to consumer spending.

November 30, 2018 · By Christopher Probyn and Simona Mocuta

Geopolitical Outlook

Geopolitics Drives Uncertainty and Downside Risk

The trend toward monetary tightening should continue and further unilateral sovereign actions promise more surprises

November 30, 2018 · By Elliot Hentov

Fixed Income Outlook

Time for Bond Investors to Position for Cycle End

A flattening yield curve, and signs of concern in the US mortgage market are amongst a range of considerations facing investors in 2019.

November 30, 2018 · By Matt Nest and Niall O’Leary

Equities Outlook

Navigate Late Cycle Volatility with Defensive Equities

US equities are likely to outperform those in Europe and emerging markets in 2019, as investors face increased volatility amid rising interest rates and trade uncertainty.

November 30, 2018 · By Gaurav Mallik

Currency Outlook

Use Short-Term Moves to Hedge Long-Term Currency Exposures

While 2019 may initially provide more of the same for international currency markets, the potential for a significant shift should not be discounted.

November 30, 2018 · By James Binny and Aaron Hurd

Investment Theme

All Eyes on China

There are short-term risks in China, but these are offset by long-term investment opportunities.

November 30, 2018 · By Laura Ostrander, George Bicher, Andrew Xiao, and Abhishek Kumar

About The Publication

As investment challenges grow more complex, our Global Market Outlook is designed to alert investors to portfolio risks and opportunities in the coming year, based on the research of our investment teams.

Research around near-term and longer-term market issues is at the heart of who we are as investors. It drives the kinds of outcome-oriented portfolios we create for clients, drawing on the full range of our beta and alpha solutions as well as our asset allocation expertise.

Important Risk Information

This information is for informational purposes only, not to be construed as investment advice or a recommendation or offer to buy or sell any security. Investors should always obtain and read an up-to-date investment services description or prospectus before deciding whether to appoint an investment manager or to invest in a fund. Any views expressed herein are those of the author(s), are based on available information, and are subject to change without notice. Individual portfolio management teams may hold different views and may make different investment decisions for different clients. There are no guarantees regarding the achievement of investment objectives, target returns, portfolio construction, allocations or measurements such as alpha, tracking error, stock weightings and other information ratios. The views and strategies described may not be suitable for all investors. State Street Global Advisors does not provide tax or legal advice. Prospective investors should consult with a tax or legal advisor before making any investment decision. Investing entails risks and there can be no assurance that State Street Global Advisors will achieve profits or avoid incurring losses. Performance quoted represents past performance, which is no guarantee of future results. All forms of investments carry risks, including the risk of losing all of the invested amount. Such activities may not be suitable for everyone.