After an extraordinary contraction in 2020, the global economy will likely bounce back sharply in 2021 as vaccine rollout allows pent-up demand to materialize and supportive monetary and fiscal policies aid the recovery.
The powerful cyclical recovery likely lifts inflation almost everywhere, but large output gaps will cap the rise.
Emerging Markets Outlook
Emerging markets will benefit from improved global demand and the rebound in commodity prices, although the pace of recovery will vary greatly across countries.
The COVID crisis likely accelerated shifts in global supply chains, but the full impact will take years to fully materialize.
Global Capital Markets
Important forces across macroeconomic, political and public health dimensions continue to create tensions, but benign risk indicators and a mostly constructive outlook characterize our multi-asset portfolio positions.
Despite losing some important support mechanisms alongside dramatically tightened credit spreads, credit assets across both investment grade and high yield markets remain attractive.
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