For much of the third quarter, global risk assets registered positive momentum. While exceptionally easy central bank policy was certainly a driving factor for this performance, recent economic data has also continued to surprise to the upside. Our base case is that second quarter 2020 will mark the trough of economic activity, and while initial third quarter global economic data releases suggest a robust start to the recovery, the path to full recovery will likely be more gradual for most economies. Even the more optimistic Wall Street forecasters don’t expect the global level of output to return to pre-pandemic levels until mid-2021, and almost all forecasters expect material differences with the pace of the recovery between regions.
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