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Global High Yield Update—Q1 2026

Global High Yield at a Crossroads: Carry vs. Conflict

Executive Summary:

  • Risk repriced, not credit broken: Spread widening reflects geopolitics and energy risk, not a collapse in fundamentals or market functioning.
  • Carry still does the heavy lifting: Income remains the primary return driver, cushioning volatility in a non recessionary base case.
  • Tail risks matter, but aren’t priced: Escalation remains the key downside, yet markets continue to assume disruption is contained.

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