Despite trade risks, the economic cycle should continue given central banks’ accommodative policy stance.
From the CIO
We believe the biggest lesson of the past 12 months is to look through the temporary noise and consider where fundamentals might be taking us over the longer term.
While economic momentum has slowed and the trade war looms large, multiple signs of stabilization in the first half could, under the right conditions, keep global growth on track.
Macro factors should continue to support growth, but investors need to be cautious as volatility could easily spike given the significant geopolitical and growth risks facing the global economy.
Fixed Income Outlook
With the Fed switching to a more dovish policy stance, this already lengthy cycle could extend further. Nonetheless, we would expect fatigue to set in eventually, not least because risks are building.
Emerging Markets Outlook
China’s stimulus and the US Federal Reserve’s policy stance are creating conditions for better growth in emerging markets (EMs), despite the US-China trade war and still-strong US dollar. China and India are expected to drive EM and global growth in the coming years.