Given the uncertainties of today’s market environment, investors may wish to consider different scenarios and downside protection approaches with the aim of better positioning their portfolios to weather volatile markets.
Figure 1: Headline Inflation Appears to be Turning, Yet Core Inflation Remains Sticky
The current market environment is immersed in uncertainties. Market sentiment in 2023 has shifted from seeing a soft landing or a hard landing to a hard landing or worrying about which surprises could still hit us and lead to a market shock.
In a recent blog, Chief Economist Simona Mocuta cautions against an overly hawkish interpretation of the recent data flow, and argues the disinflation narrative remains well anchored. This supports the view of a soft landing.1
In a separate State Street Global Advisors publication2 we describe six Grey Swans that could unsettle markets in 2023. Our darkest Grey Swan is that of an outright deflationary bust. In this hard landing scenario central banks deliver multiple rate hikes while unemployment increases. Amid the weakening global demand and improved supply, oil prices tumble to send a deflationary impulse through the economy.
A possible market shock might also be triggered by a major oil price hike, another one of our Grey Swans. With the Ukraine War, past OPEC+ production cuts, and Russian sanctions as a backdrop, a larger-than-anticipated economic response to China’s scrapping of COVID-19-related policies could stoke oil demand from Chinese industry and be the catalyst for renewed surging energy prices.
For professional investors’ use only.
This material is for educational purposes on options as a hedging vehicle. This should not be considered as an investment advice to buy or sell any particular security or as an investing strategy.
This communication is not intended to promote or recommend the use of options or options trading strategies and should not be relied upon as such.
The whole or any part of this work may not be reproduced, copied or transmitted or any of its contents disclosed to third parties without State Street Global Advisors’ express written consent.
The views expressed in this material are the views of Investment Strategy & Research team through the period ended March 21, 2023 and are subject to change based on market and other conditions.
This document contains certain statements that may be deemed forward looking statements. Please note that any such statements are not guarantees of any future performance and actual results or developments may differ materially from those projected.
The information provided does not constitute investment advice and it should not be relied on as such. It should not be considered a solicitation to buy or an offer to sell a security. It does not take into account any investor’s particular investment objectives, strategies, tax status or investment horizon. You should consult your tax and financial advisor.
All information is from State Street Global Advisors unless otherwise noted and has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but its accuracy is not guaranteed. There is no representation or warranty as to the current accuracy, reliability or completeness of, nor liability for, decisions based on such information and it should not be relied on as such.
Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance.
Investing involves risk including the risk of loss of principal.
Options investing entail a high degree of risk and may not be appropriate for all investors.
Hedging involves taking offsetting positions intended to reduce the volatility of an asset. If the hedging position behaves differently than expected, the volatility of the strategy as a whole may increase and even exceed the volatility of the asset being hedged.
Low volatility funds can exhibit relative low volatility and excess returns compared to the Index over the long term; both portfolio investments and returns may differ from those of the Index. The fund may not experience lower volatility or provide returns in excess of the Index and may provide lower returns in periods of a rapidly rising market. Active stock selection may lead to added risk in exchange for the potential outperformance relative to the Index.
Actively managed funds do not seek to replicate the performance of a specified index.
The State Street Global Advisors Global Managed Volatility Fund and State Street Global Advisors Global ESG Screened Managed Volatility Fund (SSGA GMV) are actively managed and may underperform their benchmarks. An investment in the State Street Global Advisors Global Managed Volatility Fund or State Street Global Advisors Global ESG Screened Managed Volatility Fund (SSGA GMV) is not appropriate for all investors and is not intended to be a complete investment program. Investing in the State Street Global Advisors Global Managed Volatility Fund or State Street Global Advisors Global ESG Screened Managed Volatility Fund (SSGA GMV) involves risks, including the risk that investors may receive little or no return on the investment or that investors may lose part or even all of the investment.
A Smart Beta strategy does not seek to replicate the performance of a specified cap-weighted index and as such may underperform such an index. The factors to which a Smart Beta strategy seeks to deliver exposure may themselves undergo cyclical performance. As such, a Smart Beta strategy may underperform the market or other Smart Beta strategies exposed to similar or other targeted factors. In fact, we believe that factor premia accrue over the long term (5–10 years), and investors must keep that long time horizon in mind when investing.
The trademarks and service marks referenced herein are the property of their respective owners. Third party data providers make no warranties or representations of any kind relating to the accuracy, completeness or timeliness of the data and have no liability for damages of any kind relating to the use of such data.
The information contained in this communication is not a research recommendation or ‘investment research’ and is classified as a ‘Marketing Communication’ in accordance with the Markets in Financial Instruments Directive (2014/65/EU) or applicable Swiss regulation. This means that this marketing communication (a) has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research (b) is not subject to any prohibition on dealing ahead of the dissemination of investment research.
This communication is directed at professional clients (this includes eligible counterparties as defined by the appropriate EU regulator) who are deemed both knowledgeable and experienced in matters relating to investments. The products and services to which this communication relates are only available to such persons and persons of any other description (including retail clients) should not rely on this communication.
© 2023 State Street Corporation.
All Rights Reserved.
Exp. Date: 04/30/2024