Commentary Library

Emerging market debt (in USD terms) recorded modest moves in July as worries related to regulatory crackdown in China and a recent surge in infections from the Delta variant of coronavirus were balanced by reduced expectations of the US Federal Reserve (Fed) going ahead with an earlier and more aggressive normalization of monetary policy.

Emerging market debt (in USD terms) delivered positive returns in the second quarter as the recovery in global economic growth continued to aid EM countries. Even as concerns about China growth and COVID-19 infections in Asia intensified during the quarter, higher growth in EM countries, a weaker dollar (dollar Index at -0.85% in Q2 2021) and lower US Treasury yields (10-year US Treasury at -27 bps lower in Q2 2021) underpinned the good performance.

Emerging market debt (in USD terms) generated positive returns in May, even as EM investors appear increasingly cautious about near-term sentiment and a relatively less supportive rates backdrop.

Emerging market debt (in USD terms) experienced a good April, supported by a partial retracement in cross-market volatility, improvement in EM currencies’ carry-to-vol ratios, and stabilization in US rates.

Emerging market debt (in USD terms) experienced a weak first quarter as markets reacted to a number of developments that included investor concerns about rising US Treasury yields leading to a pick-up in market volatility across asset classes.

Emerging market debt (in USD terms) experienced a difficult February as markets reacted to a sharp sell-off of US Treasury bonds that sent yields higher.

Emerging market debt (in USD terms) experienced a volatile start to the year, with the end result for the month being a modestly negative overall return.

EM debt (in USD terms) saw strong positive returns in Q4, aided by the announcement of effective vaccines for COVID-19, the potential benefits to EM as a result of a prospective Biden administration, continued USD weakness, and increased demand for risk assets amid ample global liquidity. Returns for 2020 were positive overall (in USD terms) following a V-shaped recovery from the lows of March.

EM debt (in USD terms) enjoyed positive momentum in November, boosted by two major events: the outcome of the US elections and positive vaccine news. The change in US administration could mark a structural shift for US engagement with a number of EM countries and a return to multilateralism.

Emerging market (EM) debt ended the month flat overall in US dollar terms. A pick-up in volatility was evident towards the end of the month as a new COVID-19 infection wave was seen in parts of Europe and the US, and a series of new and more stringent lockdown measures were introduced. This led to investor concerns about a potential pause in the underlying economic recovery, leading to a correction in risk assets.