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Market Forecasts: Q2 2026

Chief Economist
Portfolio Manager

Global economic outlook

  • The US economy is forecast to grow by 2.3% in 2026, a slight downward revision due to recent geopolitical developments, with consumer spending expected to moderate and investment growth to improve modestly.
  • Elsewhere, we have trimmed our 2026 growth forecasts in Europe (to 1.1%) and China (to 4.4%) as the ramifications of recent events ripple through to the bottom line. Inflation has also been revised higher as pressures mount in all regions.
  • The duration of the Middle East conflict will shape the nature of any economic shock: a shorter conflict will mostly drive inflation, while a prolonged conflict will dampen growth; nonetheless, central banks are unlikely to implement dramatic rate hikes at this time.

Global capital markets outlook

  • There are many ways that the war with Iran may play out over the coming weeks or months. But the significantly different market outcomes that arise from scenario analysis of the situation means that taking big stock versus bond positions should be deferred.
  • Investments in commodities have worked well as a hedge during this period of increased geopolitical risk and we continue to see value in the asset class both from an intermediate fundamental standpoint and as an ongoing tail risk hedge.

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