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        Monthly Cash Review – GBP

        UK cash markets turn towards easing

        UK front end markets pivot as growth slows and inflation fades, pricing near term Bank of England (BoE) rate cuts and signaling two way risk for sterling investors amid an emerging easing cycle.

        UK front-end markets are beginning to reflect a more decisive macro shift. Market pricing now implies a high probability—approaching 90%—of a rate cut by April, with expectations for a second move by late summer. This dovish repricing is being driven less by lingering inflation fears and more by a visible slowdown in growth alongside emerging weakness in the labor market.

        The inflation picture is evolving largely as expected. The earlier inflation shock—much of it driven by government-induced measures—is now washing out of the data. Headline inflation is expected to fall back to target and potentially undershoot in the months ahead. While services inflation remains elevated, momentum is clearly moderating as labor-market slack emerges. Unemployment trends have softened more than anticipated, reinforcing the case for policy easing.

        In our Global Market Outlook, we emphasize that slowing growth and fading inflation pressures the Bank of England to continue easing policy, albeit cautiously. The UK stands out as one of the more advanced candidates for an inflection point, reflecting both domestic economic softness and the normalization of prior inflation shocks.

        For short-term sterling investors, the focus is shifting toward positioning for a gradual easing cycle rather than defending against persistent inflation risk. Front-end yields remain attractive, but the balance of risks has tilted toward lower rates over the medium term. As a result, the short end of the curve has become increasingly sensitive to labor-market and services-inflation data. While near-term markets remain orderly, the UK now offers more two-way risk—and more opportunity—than it has in some time, finally giving sterling money markets something interesting to debate.

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