Are you sure you want to change languages?
The page you are visiting uses a different locale than your saved profile. Do you want to change your locale?
Insights
Get Shorty: Finding Opportunity in the Front of the Curve
It has been a painful year for fixed income investors amid sharply rising yields that have weighed on fixed income performance. In the current environment, we see 3 key reasons why investors should consider more defensive positioning in the short end of the curve: central banks remain a long way from raising rates; it is an opportunity to shorten duration risk; and the recent sell-off has restored some yield.
Coping with the recent challenges for fixed income
The year so far has been painful for fixed income investors. The rise of around 70bp in the US 10Y Treasury yield has proved a major drag on most fixed income assets. Moreover, it is by no means clear that the sell-off has finished. During the first 3 phases of US quantitative easing (QE) there were 3 aggressive bond sell-offs that, on average, lasted 21 weeks and saw a rise in the 10Y Treasury yield of 140bp.1
With central banks already heavily embedded in financial markets, they may see reason to push back against anything that starts to resemble a bond rout. However, it may still be prudent for investors to assume more defensive bond positions at the shorter part of the curve. In the current environment, we see 3 reasons to like the front of the curve:
1. Central banks remain a long way from raising rates.
The US Federal Reserve (Fed) took 7 years to make its first rate move following the Global Financial Crisis and the tightening process was gradual. Yet the Overnight Index Swaps market currently prices 50bp of tightening in 2 years and 100bp 3 years forward. In short, the market has already priced a pretty aggressive policy tightening for a central bank that has clearly downplayed fears over inflation. This should limit the ability of the front end to sell off further, even on robust economic numbers, thus protecting shorter-dated bonds.
2. Shortening duration risk.
Reducing a portfolio’s price sensitivity to rising yields is a key defensive strategy for fixed income investors. Low yields and, until recently, flat curves have seen debt management agencies skew issuance towards longer bonds. This, along with the shift lower in yields, has seen the duration of bond indices lengthen. For example, the duration of the Bloomberg Barclays Euro Aggregate: Treasury Index has extended by 1.4 years during the last 5 years.
Over that time period, the ratio of price sensitivity versus the shorter Bloomberg Barclays Euro Aggregate: Treasury 1-3 Year Index has moved from 3.8 to 4.5 times.2 Carrying this extra duration can be expensive in a rising yield environment, which makes strategies that shift into the shorter part of the curve to reduce duration exposure more appealing.
3. The sell-off has restored some yield.
A key argument against investing in the short part of the curve has been that it is not just a low yield, but a no yield environment. However, the recent sell-off has restored some value to the short end.
One of the more extreme moves has been at the front end of the gilt curve where the vaccination push has raised hopes of an early return to something that resembles normality for the UK economy. As a result, the Bloomberg Barclays UK Gilt 1-5 Year Index has moved from a yield of -10bp at the start of the year to +15bp currently. That is not a great deal in outright terms, but it represents a meaningful pick-up to the 5bp on offer from the SONIA overnight rate. The overnight rate represents the typical rate that is paid on money held at banks, so this is a clear example of where short-dated funds can be used to reduce the impact of ‘cash drag’ on portfolios.
Go defensive while seeking yield enhancement
Short-maturity bonds are a defensive strategy for the current reflationary environment but they can also be yield-enhancing. The chart below shows the yield to worst on certain key short-maturity indices and how that relates to duration risk.
The Bloomberg Barclays US High yield 0-5 Year (ex 144A) Index and the ICE BoA 0-5 Year Emerging Market USD Index stand out as providing a high yield versus a relatively low duration. Obviously, these indices have very different risk characteristics to those of investment grade exposures, but the higher yields also provide protection to rising underlying yields. US high yield in particular, with an option-adjusted duration of 1.84 and a yield of 3.73%, can endure around a 200bp sell-off before the price losses on the underlying position offset the coupon.
Indeed, high yield is one of the few fixed income strategies to have posted positive returns year to date, partly driven by investor demand for the yield but also because the strong reflationary backdrop should ultimately support an improvement in the credit quality of the bonds.
How to access these themes with SPDR ETFs
SPDR offers a wide range of ETFs that allow investors to access exposure to the short end of the curve. To learn more about these ETFs, and to view full performance histories, please follow the links below:
SPDR® Bloomberg Barclays 0-3 Year Euro Corporate Bond UCITS ETF (Dist)
SPDR® Bloomberg Barclays 1-3 Year Euro Government Bond UCITS ETF (Dist)
SPDR® Bloomberg Barclays 0-3 Year U.S. Corporate Bond UCITS ETF (Dist)
SPDR® Bloomberg Barclays 1-3 Year U.S. Treasury Bond UCITS ETF (Dist)
SPDR® Bloomberg Barclays 0-5 Year Sterling Corporate Bond UCITS ETF (Dist)
SPDR® Bloomberg Barclays 1-5 Year Gilt UCITS ETF (Dist)
SPDR® Bloomberg Barclays 0-5 Year U.S. High Yield Bond UCITS ETF (Dist)
SPDR® ICE BofA 0-5 Year EM USD Government Bond EUR Hdg UCITS ETF (Acc)
European-Domiciled ETP Segment Flows (Top/Bottom 5, $mn)
European-Domiciled ETP Asset Category Flows ($mn)
Sources: Bloomberg Finance L.P., for the period 25 February – 4 March 2021. Flows are as of date indicated and should not be relied upon as current thereafter. This information should not be considered a recommendation to invest in a particular sector or to buy or sell any security shown. It is not known whether the sectors or securities shown will be profitable in the future.
1Sell-off periods averaged: During QE1: 19 December 2008-5 June 2009; QE2: 8 October 2010-4 February 2011; QE3: 26 April 2013-6 September 2013
2Investors in the Bloomberg Barclays Euro Aggregate: Treasury Index currently have 4.5 times the duration exposure they would have if invested in the Bloomberg Barclays Euro Aggregate: Treasury 1-3 Year Index
Marketing Communication.
General Access.
For professional clients use only.
For qualified investors according to Article 10(3) and (3ter) of the Swiss Collective Investment Schemes Act (“CISA”) and its implementing ordinance, at the exclusion of qualified investors with an opting-out pursuant to Art. 5(1) of the Swiss Federal Law on Financial Services ("FinSA") and without any portfolio management or advisory relationship with a financial intermediary pursuant to Article 10(3ter) CISA (“Excluded Qualified Investors”) only.
For Investors in Austria: The offering of SPDR ETFs by the Company has been notified to the Financial Markets Authority (FMA) in accordance with section 139 of the Austrian Investment Funds Act. Prospective investors may obtain the current sales Prospectus, the articles of incorporation, the KIID as well as the latest annual and semi-annual report free of charge from State Street Global Advisors GmbH, Brienner Strasse 59, D-80333 Munich. T: +49 (0)89-55878-400. F+49 (0)89-55878-440.
Finland: The offering of funds by the Companies has been notified to the Financial Supervision Authority in accordance with Section 127 of the Act on Common Funds (29.1.1999/48) and by virtue of confirmation from the Financial Supervision Authority the Companies may publicly distribute their Shares in Finland. Certain information and documents that the Companies must publish in Ireland pursuant to applicable Irish law are translated into Finnish and are available for Finnish investors by contacting State Street Custodial Services (Ireland) Limited, 78 Sir John Rogerson’s Quay, Dublin 2, Ireland.
France: This document does not constitute an offer or request to purchase shares in the Companies. Any subscription for shares shall be ade in accordance with the terms and conditions specified in the complete Prospectuses, the KIID, the addenda as well as the Companies’ Supplements. These documents are available from the Company centralising correspondent: State Street Banque S.A., 23-25 rue Delariviere- Lefoullon, 92064 Paris La Defense Cedex or on the French part of the site spdrs.com. The Companies re undertakings for collective investment in transferable securities (UCITS) governed by Irish law and accredited by the Central Bank of Ireland as a UCITS n accordance with European Regulations. European Directive no. 2014/91/ EU dated 23 July 2014 on UCITS, as amended, established common rules pursuant to the cross-border marketing of UCITS with which they duly comply. This common base does not exclude differentiated implementation. This is why a European UCITS can be sold in France even though its activity does not comply with rules identical to those governing the approval of this type of product in France. The offering of these compartments has been notified to the Autorité des Marchés Financiers (AMF) in accordance with article L214- 2-2 of the French Monetary and Financial Code.
Germany: The offering of SPDR ETFs by the Companies has been notified to the Bundesanstalt für Finanzdienstleistungsaufsicht (BaFin) in accordance with section 312 of the German Investment Act. Prospective investors may obtain the current sales Prospectuses, the articles of incorporation, the KIIDs as well as the latest annual and semiannual report free of charge from State Street Global Advisors GmbH, Brienner Strasse 59, D-80333 Munich. T: +49 (0)89-55878-400.
Ireland: State Street Global Advisors Ireland Limited is regulated by the Central Bank of Ireland. Registered office address 78 Sir John Rogerson’s Quay, Dublin 2. Registered number 145221. T: +353 (0)1 776 3000. F: +353 (0)1 776 3300. Web: ssga.com.
Israel: No action has been taken or will be taken in Israel that would permit a public offering of the Securities or distribution of this sales brochure to the public in Israel. This sales brochure has not been approved by the Israel Securities Authority (the ‘ISA’).
Accordingly, the Securities shall only be sold in Israel to an investor of the type listed in the First Schedule to the Israeli Securities Law, 1978, which has confirmed in writing that it falls within one of the categories listed therein (accompanied by external confirmation where this is required under ISA guidelines), that it is aware of the implications of being considered such an investor and consents thereto, and further that the Securities are being purchased for its own account and not for the purpose of re-sale or distribution.
This sales brochure may not be reproduced or used for any other purpose, nor be furnished to any other person other than those to whom copies have been sent.
Nothing in this sales brochure should be considered investment advice or investment marketing as defined in the Regulation of Investment Advice, Investment Marketing and Portfolio Management Law, 1995 (“the Investment Advice Law”). Investors are encouraged to seek competent investment advice from a locally licensed investment advisor prior to making any investment. State Street is not licensed under the Investment Advice Law, nor does it carry the insurance as required of a licensee thereunder.
This sales brochure does not constitute an offer to sell or solicitation of an offer to buy any securities other than the Securities offered hereby, nor does it constitute an offer to sell to or solicitation of an offer to buy from any person or persons in any state or other jurisdiction in which such offer or solicitation would be unlawful, or in which the person making such offer or solicitation is not qualified to do so, or to a person or persons to whom it is unlawful to make such offer or solicitation.
Italy: State Street Global Advisors Ireland Limited Milan Branch (Sede Secondaria di Milano) (“State Street Global Advisors Milan Branch”) is a branch of State Street Global Advisors Ireland Limited, registered in Ireland with company number 145221, authorised and regulated by the Central Bank of Ireland, and whose registered office is at 78 Sir John Rogerson’s Quay, Dublin 2. State Street Global Advisors Milan Branch is registered in Italy with company number 10495250960 - R.E.A. 2535585 and VAT number 10495250960, and its office is located at Via Ferrante Aporti, 10 - 20125 Milano, Italy. Telephone: (+39) 02 32066 100. Facsimile: (+39) 02 32066 155.
Netherlands: This communication is directed at qualified investors within the meaning of Section 2:72 of the Dutch Financial Markets Supervision Act (Wet op het financieel toezicht) as amended. The products and services to which this communication relates are only available to such persons and persons of any other description should not rely on this communication. Distribution of this document does not trigger a licence requirement for the Companies or SSGA in the Netherlands and consequently no prudential and conduct of business supervision will be exercised over the Companies or SSGA by the Dutch Central Bank (De Nederlandsche Bank N.V.) and the Dutch Authority for the Financial Markets (Stichting Autoriteit Financiële Markten). The Companies have completed their notification to the Authority Financial Markets in the Netherlands in order to market their shares for sale to the public in the Netherlands and the Companies are, accordingly, investment institutions (beleggingsinstellingen) according to Section 2:72 Dutch Financial Markets Supervision Act of Investment Institutions.
Norway: The offering of SPDR ETFs by the Companies has been notified to the Financial Supervisory Authority of Norway (Finanstilsynet) in accordance with applicable Norwegian Securities Funds legislation. By virtue of a confirmation letter from the Financial Supervisory Authority dated 28 March 2013 (16 October 2013 for umbrella II) the Companies may market and sell their shares in Norway.
Spain: State Street Global Advisors SPDR ETFs Europe I and II plc have been authorised for public distribution in Spain and are registered with the Spanish Securities Market Commission (Comisión Nacional del Mercado de Valores) under no.1244 and no.1242. Before investing, investors may obtain a copy of the Prospectus and Key Investor Information Documents, the Marketing Memoranda, the fund rules or instruments of incorporation as well as the annual and semi-annual reports of State Street Global Advisors SPDR ETFs Europe I and II plc from Cecabank, S.A. Alcalá 27, 28014 Madrid (Spain) who is the Spanish Representative, Paying Agent and distributor in Spain or at spdrs.com. The authorised Spanish distributor of State Street Global Advisors SPDR ETFs is available on the website of the Securities Market Commission (Comisión Nacional del Mercado de Valores).
For Investors in Switzerland
This document is directed at qualified investors only, as defined Article 10(3) and (3ter) of the Swiss Collective Investment Schemes Act (“CISA”) and its implementing ordinance, at the exclusion of qualified investors with an opting-out pursuant to Art. 5(1) of the Swiss Federal Law on Financial Services (“FinSA”) and without any portfolio management or advisory relationship with a financial intermediary pursuant to Article 10(3ter) CISA (“Excluded Qualified Investors”). Certain of the funds may not be registered for public sale with the Swiss Financial Market Supervisory Authority (FINMA) which acts as supervisory authority in investment fund matters. Accordingly, the shares of those funds may only be offered to the aforementioned qualified investors and not be offered to any other investor in or from Switzerland. Before investing please read the prospectus and the KIID. In relation to those funds which are registered with FINMA or have appointed a Swiss Representative and Paying Agent, prospective investors may obtain the current sales prospectus, the articles of incorporation, the KIIDs as well as the latest annual and semi-annual reports free of charge from the Swiss Representative and Paying Agent, State Street Bank International GmbH, Munich, Zurich Branch, Beethovenstrasse 19, 8027 Zurich, or at www. spdrs.com, as well as from the main distributor in Switzerland, State Street Global Advisors AG ("SSGA AG"), Beethovenstrasse 19, 8027 Zurich. For information and documentation regarding all other funds, please visit spdrs.com or contact SSGA AG.
United Kingdom: The Funds have been registered for distribution in the UK pursuant to the UK’s temporary permissions regime under regulation 62 of the Collective Investment Schemes (Amendment etc.) (EU Exit) Regulations 2019. The Funds are directed at 'professional clients' in the UK (as defined in rules made under the Financial Services and Markets Act 2000) who are deemed both knowledgeable and experienced in matters relating to investments. The products and services to which this communication relates are only available to such persons and persons of any other description should not rely on this communication. Many of the protections provided by the UK regulatory system do not apply to the operation of the Funds, and compensation will not be available under the UK Financial Services Compensation Scheme.
Important Information
This document has been issued by State Street Global Advisors Ireland (“SSGA”), regulated by the Central Bank of Ireland. Registered office address 78 Sir John Rogerson’s Quay, Dublin 2. Registered number 145221. T: +353 (0)1 776 3000. Fax: +353 (0)1 776 3300. Web: ssga.com.
SPDR ETFs is the exchange traded funds (“ETF”) platform of State Street Global Advisors and is comprised of funds that have been authorised by Central Bank of Ireland as open-ended UCITS investment companies.
State Street Global Advisors SPDR ETFs Europe I & II plc issue SPDR ETFs, and is an open-ended investment company with variable capital having segregated liability between its sub-funds. The Company is organised as an Undertaking for Collective Investments in Transferable Securities (UCITS) under the laws of Ireland and authorised as a UCITS by the Central Bank of Ireland.
The information provided does not constitute investment advice. It should not be considered a solicitation to buy or an offer to sell any investment. It does not take into account any investor’s or potential investor’s particular investment objectives, strategies, tax status, risk appetite or investment horizon. If you require investment advice you should consult your tax and financial or other professional advisor. All information is from SSGA unless otherwise noted and has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but its accuracy is not guaranteed. There is no representation or warranty as to the current accuracy, reliability or completeness of, nor liability for, decisions based on such information and it should not be relied on as such.
ETFs trade like stocks, are subject to investment risk and will fluctuate in market value. The investment return and principal value of an investment will fluctuate in value, so that when shares are sold or redeemed, they may be worth more or less than when they were purchased. Although shares may be bought or sold on an exchange through any brokerage account, shares are not individually redeemable from the fund. Investors may acquire shares and tender them for redemption through the fund in large aggregations known as “creation units.” Please see the fund’s prospectus for more details.
The trademarks and service marks referenced herein are the property of their respective owners. Third party data providers make no warranties or representations of any kind relating to the accuracy, completeness or timeliness of the data and have no liability for damages of any kind relating to the use of such data.
The views expressed in this material are the views of SPDR EMEA Strategy & Research through the period ending 5 March 2021 and are subject to change based on market and other conditions. This document contains certain statements that may be deemed forward-looking statements. Please note that any such statements are not guarantees of any future performance and actual results or developments may differ materially from those projected.
Past performance is not a guarantee of future results.
All forms of investments carry risks, including the risk of losing all of the invested amount. Such activities may not be suitable for everyone.
Investing in foreign domiciled securities may involve risk of capital loss from unfavourable fluctuation in currency values, withholding taxes, from differences in generally accepted accounting principles or from economic or political instability in other nations.
Bonds generally present less short-term risk and volatility than stocks, but contain interest rate risk (as interest rates raise, bond prices usually fall); issuer default risk; issuer credit risk; liquidity risk; and inflation risk. These effects are usually pronounced for longer-term securities. Any fixed income security sold or redeemed prior to maturity may be subject to a substantial gain or loss.
International Government bonds and corporate bonds generally have more moderate short-term price fluctuations than stocks, but provide lower potential long-term returns.
Investing in high yield fixed income securities, otherwise known as "junk bonds", is considered speculative and involves greater risk of loss of principal and interest than investing in investment grade fixed income
securities. These Lower-quality debt securities involve greater risk of default or price changes due to potential changes in the credit quality of the issuer.
Standard & Poor’s, S&P and SPDR are registered trademarks of Standard & Poor’s Financial Services LLC (S&P); Dow Jones is a registered trademark of Dow Jones Trademark Holdings LLC (Dow Jones); and these trademarks have been licensed for use by S&P Dow Jones Indices LLC (SPDJI) and sublicensed for certain purposes by State Street Corporation. State Street Corporation’s financial products are not sponsored, endorsed, sold or promoted by SPDJI, Dow Jones, S&P, their respective affiliates and third party licensors and none of such parties make any representation regarding the advisability of investing in such product(s) nor do they have any liability in relation thereto, including for any errors, omissions, or interruptions of any index.
The whole or any part of this work may not be reproduced, copied or transmitted or any of its contents disclosed to third parties without SSGA’s express written consent.
The information contained in this communication is not a research recommendation or ‘investment research’ and is classified as a ‘Marketing Communication’ in accordance with the Markets in Financial Instruments Directive (2014/65/EU) or applicable Swiss Regulation. This means that this marketing communication (a) has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research (b) is not subject to any prohibition on dealing ahead of the dissemination of investment research.
You should obtain and read the SPDR prospectus and relevant Key Investor Information Document (KIID) prior to investing, which may be obtained from spdrs.com. These include further details relating to the SPDR funds, including information relating to costs, risks and where the funds are authorised for sale.
© 2021 State Street Corporation.
All Rights Reserved.
2015149.165.1.EMEA.INST
Exp. Date: 31/03/2022