Role Reversal: Emerging Market Debt Proving Stable
Emerging markets continue to face the headwinds of COVID and high inflation. However, the resilience shown so far in 2022 hints that emerging market central banks are perceived to be ahead in the fight against inflation, and this is lending some stability to bonds and local market currencies.
Roles reversed – emerging market debt in 2021 vs. 2022
The start of a Federal Reserve (Fed) tightening cycle has typically been quite a traumatic experience for emerging market debt (EMD) investors. The Bloomberg EM Local Currency Liquid Government Index fell more than 13% from the average levels seen in H1 2015 in the run-up to the December 2015 rate rise. Fears of a repeat performance coupled with the unexpected strength of the USD kept investors on the sidelines in 2021. See the Q1 2022 Bond Compass, which shows that real money investors were net sellers of EM local currency bonds relative to benchmarks between spring 2021 and year end.
The start to 2022 represents something of a role reversal. Fears over an aggressive Fed tightening have increased, yet EM debt has proved remarkably stable. It is the developed markets (DM) that have seen significant volatility and price losses in both bond and equity markets. Increased risk appetite at the start of the year may have encouraged some investors to re-enter emerging markets but there are also some key reasons why the forces that buffeted EMD in 2021 may be abating.
EM central banks are ahead of the curve
The Fed and other DM central banks are under pressure, for the main part because the market believes they are behind the curve. Inflation proved not to be transitory (as promised), rose more than expected and many central banks have retained super-stimulatory policy settings despite tight labour markets. EM central banks, however, have responded to inflation, lifting rates off lows despite, in many cases, the quite severe economic impact of COVID. Figure 1, which is a diffusion index of central bank rate changes, suggests peak tightening pressure was seen in mid-December 2021 and is now starting to fade.
Figure 1: EM Central Bank Policy Tightening Eases from the Highs
It may be premature to call an end to the inflation surge that has so troubled central banks but there are some hints that peak inflation pressures for many EM nations may now be behind us. As State Street Global Markets highlighted in a recent note, the indicator of price pressures drawn from online data (PriceStats®) is pointing to some fading of the inflationary impulse in several large EM nations.1
Key observations are that non-food supermarket prices in China remain subdued, that inflation in South Korea and Mexico may have peaked at the end of 2021, and that the PriceStats series in Brazil has seen a meaningful decline. So while high energy prices and supply chain disruptions will keep inflation at elevated levels, there are some markers that pressures should start to ease during the early part of 2022.
The strength of the USD proved to be a constant thorn in the side of EM investors in 2021. Over the course of the year, the depreciation of EM currencies relative to the USD acted as a 5.5% drag on performance for the Bloomberg EM Local Currency Liquid Government Index. The DXY (the trade-weighted USD) hit its highest level since mid-2020 in early 2022, on fears over an aggressive Fed policy tightening.
Since then, the price of the December Fed Funds future has fallen further, implying the market believes that even more Fed tightening will be delivered this year, but the USD has fallen back. While a big risk-off move would favour the USD, this lack of traction from increased rate expectations does hint that the USD may struggle to push higher unless the Fed delivers a real shock, such as tightening policy in bigger-than-anticipated 50bp clips.
Locking in higher yields
Bond yields globally are rising but the trick for fixed income investors is to lock in higher yields while trying to minimise exposure to declining asset values. Investors in DMs are likely to remain cautious around building long positions and locking in improved yield levels before there is a little more clarity on the inflation picture.
In contrast, EM debt has proved remarkably stable. Yields on the Bloomberg EM Local Currency Liquid Government Index have moved around 10bp higher since the end of 2021, to 5.3%, against a more than 50bp increase for the Bloomberg US Treasury Index to 1.75%. By opting for EM versus US Treasuries, investors would lock in a yield advantage of over 350bp and, based on the past few weeks of price action, also have more stable total returns.
Chart 2: EM Yield to Worst at highest since 2019 and Spreads to Treasuries are Wide Despite Recent Sell-Off
Emerging markets continue to face the headwinds of COVID and high inflation. Second guessing where the USD may move is also a risk. However, the resilience shown so far in 2022 hints that EM central banks are perceived to be ahead in the fight against inflation, and this is lending some stability to bonds and local market currencies.
Stability coupled with yield levels that are at their highest since mid-2019 should aid confidence that EM local currency debt can perform well in 2022 as inflation starts to decline. For investors less confident that inflation pressures will ease, index-linked bonds can provide a degree of protection (see the Q1 2022 Bond Compass for more details).
How to play this theme
Investors looking to access EM debt can do so with SPDR ETFs. To learn more about these funds, and to view full performance histories, please click on the fund names below.
1 Source: State Street Global Markets, EM Inflation in Focus: Rollover Relief, February 2022.
2 Prior to 1 February 2022, the Fund was known as SPDR Bloomberg Barclays Emerging Markets Local Bond UCITS ETF (Dist), tracking the Bloomberg Barclays Emerging Markets Local Currency Liquid Government Bond Index.
3 Prior to 1 February 2022, the Fund was known as SPDR Bloomberg Barclays Emerging Markets Local Bond USD Base CCY Hdg to EUR UCITS ETF (Acc), tracking the Bloomberg Barclays Emerging Markets Local Currency Liquid Government Bond Index unhedged USD base hedged into EUR.
4 Prior to 1 February 2022, the Fund was known as SPDR Bloomberg Barclays EM Inflation Linked Local Bond UCITS ETF (Dist), tracking the Bloomberg Barclays Emerging Markets Inflation Linked 20% Capped Bond Index.
Information Classification: General Access.
For professional clients use only.
For Investors in Austria: The offering of SPDR ETFs by the Company has been notified to the Financial Markets Authority (FMA) in accordance with section 139 of the Austrian Investment Funds Act. Prospective investors may obtain the current sales Prospectus, the articles of incorporation, the KIID as well as the latest annual and semi-annual report free of charge from State Street Global Advisors Europe Limited, Branch in Germany, Brienner Strasse 59, D-80333 Munich. T: +49 (0)89-55878-400.F: +49 (0)89-55878-440.
For Investors in Finland: The offering of funds by the Companies has been notified to the Financial Supervision Authority in accordance with Section 127 of the Act on Common Funds (29.1.1999/48) and by virtue of confirmation from the Financial Supervision Authority the Companies may publicly distribute their Shares in Finland. Certain information and documents that the Companies must publish in Ireland pursuant to applicable Irish law are translated into Finnish and are available for Finnish investors by contacting State Street Custodial Services (Ireland) Limited, 78 Sir John Rogerson’s Quay, Dublin 2, Ireland.
For Investors in France: This document does not constitute an offer or request to purchase shares in the Company. Any subscription for shares shall be made in accordance with the terms and conditions specified in the complete Prospectus, the KIID, the addenda as well as the Company Supplements. These documents are available from the Company centralizing correspondent: State Street Banque S.A., Coeur Défense - Tour A - La Défense 4 33e étage 100, Esplanade du Général de Gaulle 92 931 Paris La Défense cedex France or on the French part of the site ssga.com/etfs. The Company is an undertaking for collective investment in transferable securities (UCITS) governed by Irish law and accredited by the Central Bank of Ireland as a UCITS in accordance with European Regulations. European Directive no. 2014/91/EU dated 23 July 2014 on UCITS, as amended, established common rules pursuant to the cross-border marketing of UCITS with which they duly comply. This common base does not exclude differentiated implementation. This is why a European UCITS can be sold in France even though its activity does not comply with rules identical to those governing the approval of this type of product in France.The offering of these compartments has been notified to the Autorité des Marchés Financiers (AMF) in accordance with article L214-2-2 of the French Monetary and Financial Code.
For Investors in Germany: The offering of SPDR ETFs by the Companies has been notified to the Bundesanstalt für Finanzdienstleistungsaufsicht (BaFin) in accordance with section 312 of the German Investment Act. Prospective investors may obtain the current sales Prospectuses, the articles of incorporation, the KIIDs as well as the latest annual and semi-annual report free of charge from State Street Global Advisors Europe Limited, Branch in Germany, Brienner Strasse 59, D-80333 Munich. Telephone: +49 (0)89-55878-400. Facsimile: +49 (0)89-55878-440.
Ireland: State Street Global Advisors Europe Limited is regulated by the Central Bank of Ireland. Registered office address 78 Sir John Rogerson’s Quay, Dublin 2. Registered Number: 49934. T: +353 (0)1 776 3000. F: +353 (0)1 776 3300.
Israel: No action has been taken or will be taken in Israel that would permit a public offering of the Securities or distribution of this sales brochure to the public in Israel. This sales brochure has not been approved by the Israel Securities Authority (the ‘ISA’).
Accordingly, the Securities shall only be sold in Israel to an investor of the type listed in the First Schedule to the Israeli Securities Law, 1978, which has confirmed in writing that it falls within one of the categories listed therein (accompanied by external confirmation where this is required under ISA guidelines), that it is aware of the implications of being considered such an investor and consents thereto, and further that the Securities are being purchased for its own account and not for the purpose of re-sale or distribution.
This sales brochure may not be reproduced or used for any other purpose, nor be furnished to any other person other than those to whom copies have been sent.
Nothing in this sales brochure should be considered investment advice or investment marketing as defined in the Regulation of Investment Advice, Investment Marketing and Portfolio Management Law, 1995 (“the Investment Advice Law”). Investors are encouraged to seek competent investment advice from a locally licensed investment advisor prior to making any investment. State Street is not licensed under the Investment Advice Law, nor does it carry the insurance as required of a licensee thereunder.
This sales brochure does not constitute an offer to sell or solicitation of an offer to buy any securities other than the Securities offered hereby, nor does it constitute an offer to sell to or solicitation of an offer to buy from any person or persons in any state or other jurisdiction in which such offer or solicitation would be unlawful, or in which the person making such offer or solicitation is not qualified to do so, or to a person or persons to whom it is unlawful to make such offer or solicitation.
Italy: State Street Global Advisors Europe Limited, Italy Branch (“State Street Global Advisors Italy”) is a branch of State Street Global Advisors Europe Limited, registered in Ireland with company number 49934, authorised and regulated by the Central Bank of Ireland, and whose registered office is at 78 Sir John Rogerson’s Quay, Dublin 2. State Street Global Advisors Italy is registered in Italy with company number 11871450968 - REA: 2628603 and VAT number 11871450968, and its office is located at Via Ferrante Aporti, 10 - 20125 Milan, Italy. T: +39 02 32066 100. F: +39 02 32066 155.
For Investors in Luxemburg: The Companies have been notified to the Commission de Surveillance du Secteur Financier in Luxembourg in order to market its shares for sale to the public in Luxembourg and the Companies are notified Undertakings in Collective Investment for Transferable Securities (UCITS).
Netherlands: This communication is directed at qualified investors within the meaning of Section 2:72 of the Dutch Financial Markets Supervision Act (Wet op het financieel toezicht) as amended. The products and services to which this communication relates are only available to such persons and persons of any other description should not rely on this communication. Distribution of this document does not trigger a licence requirement for the Companies or SSGA in the Netherlands and consequently no prudential and conduct of business supervision will be exercised over the Companies or SSGA by the Dutch Central Bank (De Nederlandsche Bank N.V.) and the Dutch Authority for the Financial Markets (Stichting Autoriteit Financiële Markten). The Companies have completed their notification to the Authority Financial Markets in the Netherlands in order to market their shares for sale to the public in the Netherlands and the Companies are, accordingly, investment institutions (beleggingsinstellingen) according to Section 2:72 Dutch Financial Markets Supervision Act of Investment Institutions.
Norway: The offering of SPDR ETFs by the Companies has been notified to the Financial Supervisory Authority of Norway (Finanstilsynet) in accordance with applicable Norwegian Securities Funds legislation. By virtue of a confirmation letter from the Financial Supervisory Authority dated 28 March 2013 (16 October 2013 for umbrella II) the Companies may market and sell their shares in Norway.
For Investors in Spain: State Street Global Advisors SPDR ETFs Europe I and II plc have been authorised for public distribution in Spain and are registered with the Spanish Securities Market Commission (Comisión Nacional del Mercado de Valores) under no.1244 and no.1242. Before investing, investors may obtain a copy of the Prospectus and Key Investor Information Documents, the Marketing Memoranda, the fund rules or instruments of incorporation as well as the annual and semi-annual reports of State Street Global Advisors SPDR ETFs Europe I and II plc from Cecabank, S.A. Alcalá 27, 28014 Madrid (Spain) who is the Spanish Representative, Paying Agent and distributor in Spain or at spdrs.com. The authorised Spanish distributor of State Street Global Advisors SPDR ETFs is available on the website of the Securities Market Commission (Comisión Nacional del Mercado de Valores).
Switzerland: The collective investment schemes referred to herein are collective investment schemes under Irish law. Prospective investors may obtain the current sales prospectus, the articles of incorporation, the KIID as well as the latest annual and semi-annual reports free of charge from the Swiss Representative and Paying Agent, State Street Bank International GmbH, Munich, Zurich Branch, Beethovenstr. 19, 8027 Zurich, as well as from the main distributor in Switzerland, State Street Global Advisors AG, Beethovenstrasse 19, 8027 Zurich. Before investing please read the prospectus and the KIID, copies of which can be obtained from the Swiss representative, or at ssga.com.
United Kingdom: The Funds have been registered for distribution in the UK pursuant to the UK’s temporary permissions regime under regulation 62 of the Collective Investment Schemes (Amendment etc.) (EU Exit) Regulations 2019. The Funds are directed at 'professional clients' in the UK (as defined in rules made under the Financial Services and Markets Act 2000) who are deemed both knowledgeable and experienced in matters relating to investments. The products and services to which this communication relates are only available to such persons and persons of any other description should not rely on this communication. Many of the protections provided by the UK regulatory system do not apply to the operation of the Funds, and compensation will not be available under the UK Financial Services Compensation Scheme.
This document has been issued by State Street Global Advisors Europe Limited (“SSGAEL”), regulated by the Central Bank of Ireland. Registered office address 78 Sir John Rogerson’s Quay, Dublin 2. Registered number 145221. T: +353 (0)1 776 3000. Fax: +353 (0)1 776 3300. Web: ssga.com.
SPDR ETFs is the exchange traded funds (“ETF”) platform of State Street Global Advisors and is comprised of funds that have been authorised by Central Bank of Ireland as open-ended UCITS investment companies.
State Street Global Advisors SPDR ETFs Europe I & II plc issue SPDR ETFs, and is an open-ended investment company with variable capital having segregated liability between its sub-funds. The Company is organised as an Undertaking for Collective Investments in Transferable Securities (UCITS) under the laws of Ireland and authorised as a UCITS by the Central Bank of Ireland.
The information provided does not constitute investment advice as such term is defined under the Markets in Financial Instruments Directive (2014/65/EU) or applicable Swiss regulation and it should not be relied on as such. It should not be considered a solicitation to buy or an offer to sell any investment. It does not take into account any investor's or potential investor’s particular investment objectives, strategies, tax status, risk appetite or investment horizon. If you require investment advice you should consult your tax and financial or other professional advisor.
All information is from SSGA unless otherwise noted and has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but its accuracy is not guaranteed. There is no representation or warranty as to the current accuracy, reliability or completeness of, nor liability for, decisions based on such information and it should not be relied on as such.
ETFs trade like stocks, are subject to investment risk and will fluctuate in market value. The investment return and principal value of an investment will fluctuate in value, so that when shares are sold or redeemed, they may be worth more or less than when they were purchased. Although shares may be bought or sold on an exchange through any brokerage account, shares are not individually redeemable from the fund. Investors may acquire shares and tender them for redemption through the fund in large aggregations known as “creation units.” Please see the fund’s prospectus for more details.
The trademarks and service marks referenced herein are the property of their respective owners. Third party data providers make no warranties or representations of any kind relating to the accuracy, completeness or timeliness of the data and have no liability for damages of any kind relating to the use of such data.
The views expressed in this material are the views of SPDR EMEA Strategy & Research through the period ending 10 February 2022 and are subject to change based on market and other conditions. This document contains certain statements that may be deemed forward-looking statements. Please note that any such statements are not guarantees of any future performance and actual results or developments may differ materially from those projected.
Bonds generally present less short-term risk and volatility than stocks, but contain interest rate risk (as interest rates raise, bond prices usually fall); issuer default risk; issuer credit risk; liquidity risk; and inflation risk. These effects are usually pronounced for longer-term securities. Any fixed income security sold or redeemed prior to maturity may be subject to a substantial gain or loss.
The Fund/share class may use financial derivatives instruments for currency hedging and to manage the portfolio efficiently. The Fund may purchase securities that are not denominated in the share class currency. Hedging should mitigate the impact of exchange rate fluctuations however hedges are sometimes subject to imperfect matching which could generate losses.
Investing in foreign domiciled securities may involve risk of capital loss from unfavourable fluctuation in currency values, withholding taxes, from differences in generally accepted accounting principles or from economic or political instability in other nations.
Investments in emerging or developing markets may be more volatile and less liquid than investing in developed markets and may involve exposure to economic structures that are generally less diverse and mature and to political systems which have less stability than those of more developed countries.
Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance.
Investing involves risk including the risk of loss of principal.
This information should not be considered a recommendation to invest in a particular sector or to buy or sell any security shown. It is not known whether the sectors or securities shown will be profitable in the future.
Standard & Poor’s, S&P and SPDR are registered trademarks of Standard & Poor’s Financial Services LLC (S&P); Dow Jones is a registered trademark of Dow Jones Trademark Holdings LLC (Dow Jones); and these trademarks have been licensed for use by S&P Dow Jones Indices LLC (SPDJI) and sublicensed for certain purposes by State Street Corporation. State Street Corporation’s financial products are not sponsored, endorsed, sold or promoted by SPDJI, Dow Jones, S&P, their respective affiliates and third party licensors and none of such parties make any representation regarding the advisability of investing in such product(s) nor do they have any liability in relation thereto, including for any errors, omissions, or interruptions of any index.
The whole or any part of this work may not be reproduced, copied or transmitted or any of its contents disclosed to third parties without SSGA’s express written consent.
The information contained in this communication is not a research recommendation or ‘investment research’ and is classified as a ‘Marketing Communication’ in accordance with the Markets in Financial Instruments Directive (2014/65/EU) or applicable Swiss Regulation. This means that this marketing communication (a) has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research (b) is not subject to any prohibition on dealing ahead of the dissemination of investment research.
Investing in foreign domiciled securities may involve risk of capital loss from unfavourable fluctuation in currency values, withholding taxes, from differences in generally accepted accounting principles or from economic or political instability in other nations. Investments in emerging or developing markets may be more volatile and less liquid than investing in developed markets and may involve exposure to economic structures that are generally less diverse and mature and to political systems which have less stability than those of more developed countries.
Please refer to the Fund’s latest Key Investor Information Document and Prospectus before making any final investment decision. The latest English version of the prospectus and the KIID can be found at www.ssga.com.
A summary of investor rights can be found here: https://www.ssga.com/library-content/products/fund-docs/summary-of-investor-rights/ssga-spdr-investors-rights-summary.pdf
Note that the Management Company may decide to terminate the arrangements made for marketing and proceed with de-notification in compliance with Article 93a of Directive 2009/65/EC
ETF's worden verhandeld zoals aandelen, zijn onderhevig aan beleggingsrisico, fluctueren in marktwaarde en kunnen worden verhandeld tegen prijzen boven of onder de netto-inventariswaarde van de ETF’s. Brokercommissies en kosten van de ETF zullen het rendement verminderen. De wijzigingen in wisselkoersen kunnen een nadelig effect hebben op de waarde, prijs of inkomsten van een belegging. Verder is er geen garantie dat een ETF zijn beleggingsdoelstellingen zal behalen.
DE SPDR-ETF'S VAN SSGA ZIJN MOGELIJK NIET BESCHIKBAAR OF GESCHIKT VOOR U. DE UITGEDRUKTE MENINGEN/INFORMATIE OP DEZE SITE VORMEN GEEN BELEGGINGSADVIES, FINANCIEEL, JURIDISCH, REGLEMENTAIR, BOEKHOUDKUNDIG OF BELASTINGADVIES. BIJ TWIJFEL DIENT MEN STEEDS ONAFHANKELIJK ADVIES IN TE WINNEN. DE INFORMATIE NOCH ENIGE OPINIE OP DEZE SITE VORMT EEN VERZOEK OF AANBOD VOOR DE AAN- OF VERKOOP VAN AANDELEN VAN DE FONDSEN OF ENIG ANDER FINANCIEEL INSTRUMENT.Standard & Poor’s®, S&P® en SPDR® zijn gedeponeerde handelsmerken van Standard & Poor's Financial Services LLC (S&P); Dow Jones is een gedeponeerd handelsmerk van Dow Jones Trademark Holdings LLC (Dow Jones); en deze handelsmerken zijn in licentie gegeven voor gebruik door S&P Dow Jones Indices LLC (SPDJI) en in sublicentie voor bepaalde doeleinden door State Street Corporation. De financiële producten van State Street Corporation worden niet gesponsord, bekrachtigd, verkocht of gepromoot door SPDJI, Dow Jones, S&P, hun respectieve filialen en externe licentiegevers, en geen van deze partijen doen enige verklaring over de raadzaamheid om te beleggen in dergelijke producten, noch aanvaarden zij enige aansprakelijkheid in verband hiermee, inclusief voor fouten, weglatingen of onderbrekingen van een index.
SPDR-ETF's mogen enkel worden aangeboden en verkocht in rechtsgebieden waar dat is toegelaten in overeenstemming met de geldende regels.
Informatie met betrekking tot Mexico
Deze informatie is geen marketing of aanbieding van effecten en is niet ook niet zo bedoeld, en mag bijgevolg niet als dusdanig worden opgevat. De fondsen waarnaar in dit document wordt verwezen, zijn niet en zullen niet worden geregistreerd onder de Mexicaanse wet op de effectenmarkten (Ley del Mercado de Valores) en mogen in Mexico niet aan het publiek worden aangeboden of verkocht. De documentatie met bekendmakingen in verband met een van de bovengenoemde fondsen mag niet openbaar worden verspreid in Mexico en aandelen van de fondsen mogen niet worden verhandeld in Mexico.
SSGA SPDR ETFs Europe I Plc en SSGA SPDR ETFs Europe II Plc zijn beleggingsmaatschappijen met variabel kapitaal opgericht als fondsen met afzonderlijke aansprakelijkheid tussen de compartimenten volgens de wetten van Ierland en erkend door de Central Bank of Ireland conform de Europese verordening van 2011 over instellingen voor collectieve belegging in effecten. U moet het prospectus en de essentiële beleggersinformatie (KIID) met betrekking tot specifieke SPDR-ETF's aanvragen en zorgvuldig lezen alvorens u belegt. Voor meer informatie en het prospectus/KIID met de kenmerken, kosten en risico's van SPDR-ETF's kunt u nu een prospectus of KIID downloaden, of kunt u deze documenten verkrijgen bij uw financieel adviseur of bij uw lokale SSGA-kantoor.
De in de VS gevestigde SPDR-ETF's die op deze site worden vermeld, zijn enkel toegelaten voor commercialisering in het relevante EER-rechtsgebied conform artikel 42 van de AIFMD (zoals omgezet in nationaal recht van die lidstaat); of kunnen anderszins rechtmatig worden aangeboden of verkocht (inclusief op basis van een verzoek van een professionele/gekwalificeerde belegger). Enkele in de VS gedomicilieerde SPDR-ETF's die op deze site worden vermeld, zijn alternatieve beleggingsinstellingen in de zin van de richtlijn van de Europese Unie inzake beheerders van alternatieve beleggingsinstellingen (Richtlijn 2011/61/EU) (“AIFMD”). SSGA Funds Management, Inc. en State Street Global Advisors Trust Company zijn de beheerders van alternatieve beleggingsinstellingen (“BAB's”) van deze fondsen.
Alvorens u belegt, moet u de beleggingsdoelstellingen, risico's, vergoedingen en kosten van de fondsen in overweging nemen. Een prospectus met deze en andere informatie kunt u downloaden of aanvragen bij uw financieel adviseur. Lees het zorgvuldig alvorens te beleggen.
SPDR® Dow Jones® Industrial Average ETF staat genoteerd en is geregistreerd voor verkoop in Nederland.