Return to the Recovery Trade with Dividend Aristocrats
US equity indices are increasingly concentrated in growth stocks, which have led a decade-long asset price expansion.
As US businesses continue to re-open, the value trade may well come into favour again, as it was at the start of 2021.
Dividend expectations and enhanced income provide investors the opportunity to diversify equity exposure and stay invested with an eye to protecting gains.
In the years since the US Federal Reserve (Fed) returned to its dovish, easy-money, low interest rate environment, US investors have seen growth stocks benefit. This has in part led to the concentration of the S&P 500® to levels not seen since the 1970s (Figure 1) and has helped investors who are long the popular US equity benchmark. As we enter Q4 2021, with the Fed expected to announce plans to dial back the asset purchases critical to keeping yields low, investors are evaluating their continued appetite to remain long the “winners” of easy money.
Figure 1: Cumulative Weight of Top 5 Names in the S&P 500®
The current economic sentiment still provides a supportive case for equity investors. Surveys of Consumer Confidence and Retail Sales have recovered their pre-pandemic trends (Figure 2), as consumers look to emerge from pandemic-related lockdowns and return to normal. We see signs of this confidence in the expectations for dividends. In our updated Insights article, USA Dividend Aristocrats: Playing the Continued Recovery, we highlight how analyst expectations and dividend forecasts are both remarkably positive at the moment.
We believe that the first half of 2021 was just the beginning and the recovery trade will continue through the end of the year. The advantage that growth stocks experience from ultra-low interest rates may be reduced if yields continue to rise as inflation picks up. We expect the gap between growth and value to continue to close.
How Can Investors Navigate This Theme?
Investors should be wary of pulling out too soon and not benefitting from the full recovery of the US economy, as social restrictions continue to loosen. Those seeking a diversified approach to playing the recovery trade through a stable dividend strategy can consider US exposure through Dividend Aristocrats UCITS ETFs, including a new ESG version. To learn more about these funds, and to view full performance histories, please click on the links below.
For Investors in Austria: The offering of SPDR ETFs by the Company has been notified to the Financial Markets Authority (FMA) in accordance with section 139 of the Austrian Investment Funds Act. Prospective investors may obtain the current sales Prospectus, the articles of incorporation, the KIID as well as the latest annual and semi-annual report free of charge from State Street Global Advisors Europe Limited, Branch in Germany, Brienner Strasse 59, D-80333 Munich. T: +49 (0)89-55878-400.F: +49 (0)89-55878-440.
For Investors in Finland: The offering of funds by the Companies has been notified to the Financial Supervision Authority in accordance with Section 127 of the Act on Common Funds (29.1.1999/48) and by virtue of confirmation from the Financial Supervision Authority the Companies may publicly distribute their Shares in Finland. Certain information and documents that the Companies must publish in Ireland pursuant to applicable Irish law are translated into Finnish and are available for Finnish investors by contacting State Street Custodial Services (Ireland) Limited, 78 Sir John Rogerson’s Quay, Dublin 2, Ireland.
For Investors in France: This document does not constitute an offer or request to purchase shares in the Company. Any subscription for shares shall be made in accordance with the terms and conditions specified in the complete Prospectus, the KIID, the addenda as well as the Company Supplements. These documents are available from the Company centralizing correspondent: State Street Banque S.A., Coeur Défense - Tour A - La Défense 4 33e étage 100, Esplanade du Général de Gaulle 92 932 Paris La Défense cedex France or on the French part of the site ssga.com/etfs. The Company is an undertaking for collective investment in transferable securities (UCITS) governed by Irish law and accredited by the Central Bank of Ireland as a UCITS in accordance with European Regulations. European Directive no. 2014/91/EU dated 23 July 2014 on UCITS, as amended, established common rules pursuant to the cross-border marketing of UCITS with which they duly comply. This common base does not exclude differentiated implementation. This is why a European UCITS can be sold in France even though its activity does not comply with rules identical to those governing the approval of this type of product in France.The offering of these compartments has been notified to the Autorité des Marchés Financiers (AMF) in accordance with article L214-2-2 of the French Monetary and Financial Code.
For Investors in Germany: The offering of SPDR ETFs by the Companies has been notified to the Bundesanstalt für Finanzdienstleistungsaufsicht (BaFin) in accordance with section 312 of the German Investment Act. Prospective investors may obtain the current sales Prospectuses, the articles of incorporation, the KIIDs as well as the latest annual and semi-annual report free of charge from State Street Global Advisors Europe Limited, Branch in Germany, Brienner Strasse 59, D-80333 Munich. Telephone: +49 (0)89-55878-400. Facsimile: +49 (0)89-55878-440.
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Norway: The offering of SPDR ETFs by the Companies has been notified to the Financial Supervisory Authority of Norway (Finanstilsynet) in accordance with applicable Norwegian Securities Funds legislation. By virtue of a confirmation letter from the Financial Supervisory Authority dated 28 March 2013 (16 October 2013 for umbrella II) the Companies may market and sell their shares in Norway.
For Investors in Spain: State Street Global Advisors SPDR ETFs Europe I and II plc have been authorised for public distribution in Spain and are registered with the Spanish Securities Market Commission (Comisión Nacional del Mercado de Valores) under no.1244 and no.1242. Before investing, investors may obtain a copy of the Prospectus and Key Investor Information Documents, the Marketing Memoranda, the fund rules or instruments of incorporation as well as the annual and semi-annual reports of State Street Global Advisors SPDR ETFs Europe I and II plc from Cecabank, S.A. Alcalá 27, 28014 Madrid (Spain) who is the Spanish Representative, Paying Agent and distributor in Spain or at spdrs.com. The authorised Spanish distributor of State Street Global Advisors SPDR ETFs is available on the website of the Securities Market Commission (Comisión Nacional del Mercado de Valores).
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United Kingdom: The Funds have been registered for distribution in the UK pursuant to the UK’s temporary permissions regime under regulation 62 of the Collective Investment Schemes (Amendment etc.) (EU Exit) Regulations 2019. The Funds are directed at 'professional clients' in the UK (as defined in rules made under the Financial Services and Markets Act 2000) who are deemed both knowledgeable and experienced in matters relating to investments. The products and services to which this communication relates are only available to such persons and persons of any other description should not rely on this communication. Many of the protections provided by the UK regulatory system do not apply to the operation of the Funds, and compensation will not be available under the UK Financial Services Compensation Scheme.
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