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Broad Equity Compass

Broad Equity Compass Q4 2025 Performance, flows, and investor behaviour

Temps de lecture: 4 min
Senior Equity ETF Strategist

Equity performance: Not all boats lifted

Global equities advanced in Q3 despite elevated valuations, buoyed by strong earnings, greater tariff clarity, and the long-awaited resumption of monetary easing by the Federal Reserve (Fed). All major regions recorded gains, but returns diverged. US small and large caps significantly outperformed their European peers in local and single-currency terms. Upbeat earnings from Magnificent 7 stocks drove S&P 500® returns.

US small caps benefitted from a supportive investment backdrop. Tariff clarity and lower-than-feared inflation, as well as sharply rebounding US GDP, drove a 12.3% Russell 2000 Q3 rally. Small-cap sector performance was distributed in a much more balanced way.

The MSCI Europe Index delivered a modest 3.5% return. Earnings were less upbeat compared to US large caps. Tariffs have turned from a risk factor into a clear headwind for export-dependent large caps. Financials contributed more than half of the overall return of the MSCI Europe Index in Q3.

Emerging markets continued to move upward with a 10.6% return in the third quarter. AI remained a key driver, enabling a sustained rebound by Chinese technology giants and Taiwan and South Korea stocks embedded in the global semiconductor supply chain.

Japanese equities accelerated in Q3, driven by Financials, Industrials, and Consumer Discretionary companies. After four years of volatility, an unusually stable yen was supportive.

Figure 1: Equity performance by segment

Equity performance by segment

Equity earnings and valuations

Equity valuations are elevated by historic standards, but robust and resilient earnings growth, to some extent, justify above average price-to-earnings (P/E) multiples. In the US, the S&P 500 is trading at a 12m forward P/E of 22.8x, which appears pricy. But US large caps have delivered unmatched earnings growth over the years—and have suffered only modest downgrades in 2025. The S&P Mid Cap 400 trades at lower multiples with limited earnings-per-share (EPS) growth year to date. In our view, deregulation, rate cuts, and robust economic growth may broaden earnings growth to small- and mid- cap US companies.

Europe, the UK, and Japan all trade at a lower P/E compared to the US, but all have endured disappointing earnings growth with downgrades to around 2%. Tariffs and slow economic growth warrant caution. Within Europe, we prefer small caps for their low multiples and more domestic profile, and stronger expected EPS growth.

Emerging markets offer a rare combination of affordable P/E multiples and double-digit earnings growth. The rise of AI in China, semiconductor strength in Taiwan and Korea, a broader economic growth advantage, and a weaker US dollar are all driving an EM equity renaissance. These tailwinds are sustainable, and we remain constructive despite the 27.5% gain realized already by the end of Q3.

Figure 2: Global EPS growth and P/E multiples

Institutional asset flows in Q3

State Street custody data shows that investors were reluctant to go beyond overweight positions in European equities. Europe weathered significant outflows in Q3, driven by weaker performance and a disappointing tariff outcome. Investors turned to other markets, adding to their already overweight positions in the US. Japanese equities attracted the strongest relative institutional inflows. EM was heavily in demand as investors rushed to reduce their underweight positions.

Figure 3: Institutional holdings

Institutional flows in Q3 2025

Institutional flows in Q3 2025

ETF flows mirrored institutional activity. US Equity ETFs were in demand on both sides of the Atlantic in Q3. Inflows continued steadily in the US market, and European-domiciled products saw an increase in investments focused on US exposures. Previously there had been a preference for European equities due to their performance and currency trends. A more stable US dollar and renewed performance momentum across US equities likely drove the change. Inflows into Europe and international developed markets remained robust, signaling a continuous need for diversification. EM equities enjoyed inflows—reflecting strong performance and AI and currency tailwinds.

Figure 4: ETF flows

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