Monthly Cash Review – EUR

Europe’s tea with granny

Euro short-term markets ended the year so quiet it felt like tea with granny—minimal issuance, compressed spreads, and an ECB in wait-and-see mode keep carry strategies in focus.

12 January 2026

Short-term euro markets remained notably quiet as the year drew to a close. Issuance had been minimal, funding needs were taken care of, and market participants were content to drift through the final weeks with limited repositioning. Cash balances were stable, dealer balance sheets saw the normal constraints. There was little evidence of stress—or urgency—in the cash markets.

The European Central Bank (ECB) remains firmly in a holding pattern. Inflation is forecast to moderate, settling slightly below the 2% target in the near term, while growth continues to track near potential at a subdued pace. Against this backdrop, the money market curve prices in only a handful of basis points of easing over the next 12 months, and that modest expectation does not generate much activity. Compared with more dynamic policy environments elsewhere, Europe’s money market rates outlook is characterized as going to granny for tea—so quiet you can hear the clock on the mantle ticking.

In our Global Market Outlook Europe remains stable but slow-moving, with limited catalysts for aggressive policy action in the near term. Inflation progress has reduced downside tail risk, but growth is not weak enough to force the ECB’s hand. For cash investors, this translates into a market where carry dominates strategy and patience is rewarded.

With limited issuance and little policy impetus, money-market spreads remain compressed. The absence of supply pressure has supported tight levels across bills, commercial paper, and other short-dated instruments. Opportunities remain incremental rather than thematic, favoring disciplined positioning over tactical curve views. Until growth meaningfully deteriorates or inflation undershoots more convincingly, the ECB appears comfortable waiting, leaving euro short-term markets anchored, stable, and unlikely to surprise anyone paying attention.

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