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How to Position for Geopolitical Shocks During Trump 2.0

Global Head of Research
Head of Macro Policy Research
Europe Head of Investment Strategy & Research
Market Positioning, Global Fiduciary Solutions

In March 2024, we published a note outlining some core ideas on how investors should position for geopolitical shocks. Our main worries at the time were a Middle East conflict-related energy price shock, or a broader repricing of risk based on global fragmentation. In this note, we review how those recommendations have performed from publication to end-July 2025 and adjust our recommendations to reflect the different geopolitical risks we believe will prevail going forward.

To recap, we had provided portfolio solutions which varied in complexity. On the one end of the spectrum, our proposed solutions included long energy/commodity volatility; long gold; and defensive equities. On the complex end of the spectrum, our solutions included renting broad equities; sovereign and corporate credit default swaps; FX hedging; and options hedging related to implied volatility.

We find long gold and defensive equities compelling enough as healthy portfolio choices in the Trump 2.0 era as well. Among derivative strategies, we maintain a preference for sovereign and corporate credit default swaps as well as renting rather than owning broad equities. Additionally, we now include payer swap options in place of FX hedging and volatility strategies.
 

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