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Euro Investment Grade Anleihen – Gefangen im Renditerückgang
Die europäischen Investment-Grade-Anleihen (IG) haben sich nach ihrem Wanken im September überzeugend erholt. Trotz der Unsicherheit über das Wiederaufflammen der Pandemie hat die Erholung des Aktienmarkts viele Marktteilnehmer ermutigt, erneut Risikopositionen einzugehen. Eine Zunahme der Käufe von Unternehmensanleihen durch die EZB hat diese Dynamik ebenfalls gefördert. Der optionsbereinigte Spread des Bloomberg Barclays Euro-Aggregate Corporates Index hat sich auf rund 110 Basispunkte reduziert, dem engsten seit dem 27. Februar 2020.
Eine weitere Spreadeinengung ist zwar weiterhin möglich, wird aber wahrscheinlich langsamer verlaufen. Der Rückgang der Bundesanleihenrenditen, die tief in den negativen Bereich gesunken waren, hat einen starken Abwärtstrend bei den Spread-Anlagen ausgelöst und ihre Renditen nach unten gezogen. Wie Abbildung 1 veranschaulicht, sind die IG-Unternehmensrenditen gesunken, jedoch nicht so stark wie andere Risikoaktiva. Hervorzuheben sind hier etwa die fünfjährigen Renditen der italienischen BTP (Buoni del Tesoro Poliannuali) Anleihen, die noch schneller gesunken sind. Während der letzten 10 Jahre war es ungewöhnlich, dass die fünfjährigen BTP-Anleihen mit einer Rendite unter der von Euro-IG-Anleihen gehandelt wurden. Der einzige anhaltende Zeitraum, in dem diese Marktkonstellation herrschte, war von 2015 bis 2016. Während dieser Zeit kaufte die EZB Staatsanleihen, aber keine Unternehmensanleihen auf – das CSPP (Corporate Sector Purchase Programme) begann im Juni 2016 mit dem Kauf von Unternehmensanleihen.
Es könnte auch spezifische Gründe für die starke Performance von Anleihen der Peripherieländer im Jahr 2020 geben, da die Recovery and Resilience Facility der EU, ihr zentral finanzierter Plan zur Erholung von der Pandemie, das Intra-Euro-Spread-Risiko komprimiert hat. Das Gesamtbild ist jedoch, dass angesichts des Rückgangs der Renditen in den negativen Bereich, Vermögenswerte, die eine Ertragssteigerung bieten, eine immer wichtigere Ertragsquelle sein werden.
Abbildung 1: Die Renditen aller Risikoaktiva wurden durch die negative Zinspolitik nach unten gezogen
Es gibt einige klare Risikomöglichkeiten für den Rest des Jahres 2020, nicht zuletzt die Wahlen in den USA. Dies könnte einige Anleger veranlassen, ihre Risikoexponierung zurückzuschrauben. Die recht attraktive Bewertung der IG-Papiere und die Tatsache der anhaltenden EZB-Unterstützung des Marktes lassen das Potenzial für einen ernstzunehmenden Ausverkauf jedoch begrenzt erscheinen. Die kurze Phase der Risikoaversion im September, als die COVID-19-Infektionen zu steigen begannen, führte dazu, dass sich der optionsbereinigte Spread des Bloomberg Barclays Euro-Aggregate Corporates Index um 7 Basispunkte weitete. Innerhalb von nur 12 Arbeitstagen hatte sich diese kurzfristige Entwicklung allerdings bereits umgekehrt.
Abgesehen von direkten Risiken im Zusammenhang mit der US-Wahl, besteht die längerfristige Sorge, dass eine neue US-Regierung neue Gesetze einführen könnte, die nicht als positiv für Aktien angesehen würden. Da es sich bei einem Großteil dieser Gesetze wahrscheinlich um Umweltgesetze handeln würde, lassen sich deren Auswirkungen durch eine Fokussierung von ESG-Anlagen reduzieren.
Es existieren jedoch auch Risiken, die deutlich näher liegen. EZB-Präsidentin Christine Lagarde hat kürzlich betont, dass die EZB ihre Strategie dahingehend prüfen wird, ob weiterhin Unternehmensanleihen auf einer "marktneutralen" Basis gekauft werden sollten oder ob bei den Käufen andere Erwägungen berücksichtigt werden sollten. Dies bezieht sich hauptsächlich auf Umweltfaktoren, nachdem Umweltgruppen die EZB dafür kritisiert haben, dass sie großen Umweltverschmutzern wie Ölgesellschaften und Fluggesellschaften billige Finanzierungen anbietet.
Der Bloomberg SASB Euro Corporate ESG Ex-Controversies Index schließt Emittenten aus dem Mutterindex aus, die anTätigkeiten im Zusammenhang mit Extremereignissen,, umstrittenen Waffen, Verstößen gegen den UN Global Compact, der Gewinnung von Thermalkohle, Tabak oder zivilen Schusswaffen beteiligt sind oder erhebliche Einnahmen daraus erzielen.
Emittenten, für die kein ESG-Score vorliegt, werden ebenfalls aus dem Index entfernt. Der Index wird danach optimiert, indem Wertpapiere und ihre entsprechenden Gewichte so ausgewählt werden, dass der ESG-Score maximiert wird, während gleichzeitig mit dem Mutterindex vergleichbare Risiko-Ertrags-Charakteristika beibehalten werden. Der Optimierungsprozess ermöglicht es, diese ESG-Strategie entweder als Ergänzung oder anstelle einer Kernallokation an Euro Corporates für benchmark-bewusste und ESG-orientierte Anleger zu verwenden.
Wie man dieses Thema spielt:
Für Anleger, die bestimmte Praktiken, Branchen oder Produktlinien ausschließen möchten, bieten wir jetzt den SPDR Bloomberg SASB® Euro Corporate ESG UCITS ETF an. Der ETF verfolgt einen eingebetteten ESG-Ansatz, der auf der Materiality Map des SASB aufbaut, um den ESG-Score mit Hilfe einer Best-in-Class-/Positiv-Screening-Methode zu maximieren. Um mehr über diese ETF zu erfahren, besuchen Sie bitte die Fondsseite
Flows
European-Domiciled ETP Segment Flows (Top/Bottom 5, $mn)
European-Domiciled ETP Asset Category Flows ($mn)
Sources: Bloomberg Finance L.P., for the period 8-15 October 2020. Flows are as of date indicated and should not be relied upon as current thereafter.
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2015149.146.4.EMEA.INST
Exp. Date: 31/10/2021