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Wird die Sektor-Rotation andauern?
Inmitten eines starken Anstiegs der Aktienmärkte im November legten viele Sektoren angesichts der positiven Auswirkungen eines wirksamen Impfstoffs kräftig zu. Während die Value-Sektoren im vergangenen Monat sprunghaft anstiegen, sehen wir für bestimmte zyklische Sektoren, darunter Industrieunternehmen, Rohstoffe und Nicht-Basiskonsumgüter, ein größeres grundlegendes Argument. In den kommenden Monaten rechnen wir mit Chancen in den Sektoren, wenn COVID-Impfstoffe eingeführt werden.
Im November kam es zu einer beträchtlichen Rotation (über Aktiensektoren, Regionen und Stile hinweg). Die große Frage ist, ob sich diese Wende in der relativen Performance und den Strömen fortsetzen wird. Die Antwort ist wahrscheinlich ja, wenn man bedenkt, dass die Ankündigung(en) eines wirksamen Impfstoffs gegen COVID-19 das Spiel verändert haben. Die Marktstimmung konzentriert sich nun auf die wirtschaftliche Erholung im Jahr 2021; dementsprechend könnte sich die Rotation mindestens bis Dezember fortsetzen, da die Anleger Untergewichtungsbereiche und Positionen für das nächste Jahr abdecken.
Die Aktivität der Investoren im letzten Monat hat erneut gezeigt, dass die Sektoren als hilfreiches Vehikel dienen, um während eines raschen Marktwechsels Beta zu spielen. Man beachte die erhebliche Streuung zwischen den Sektorrenditen im November, die eine riesige Gelegenheit zur Sektorauswahl bot und den absoluten Renditen. So gibt es beispielsweise nur sehr wenige Länder- oder Faktorindizes, die dem Anstieg des Energiesektors nahe kamen. Lesen Sie weiter für unsere Überlegungen zu den Chancen in zyklischen Sektoren im Vergleich zu Value-Sektoren.
Was wir im November sahen
Alle Sektoren legten bei starken Aktienmärkten im November zu, aber ab dem 9. November gab es eine starke Veränderung der relativen Performance. An jenem Montagmorgen erfuhren die Aktienmärkte, dass Joe Biden wahrscheinlich die US-Präsidentschaft gewonnen hatte, wenn auch ohne die erwartete blaue Welle, die eine progressivere Politik wie Unternehmenssteuererhöhungen und eine Gesundheitsreform hätte bringen können.
Bevor sich die US-Märkte für eine Reaktion öffnen konnten, erhielten wir von Pfizer* und BioNTech* die fantastische Nachricht von einem wirksamen Impfstoff. Es gab einen sofortigen Aufschwung für Sektoren, die den größten Teil des bisherigen Rallye-Jahres zurückgeblieben waren, weil sie stark von den COVID-19-Beschränkungen betroffen waren und/oder weil der Markt nach Wachstum verlangte.
Seither sind die Bereiche Finanzen und Energie weltweit führend (siehe Abbildung 1 unten) und profitieren von ihren Value-Charakteristiken. Währenddessen schnitten defensive Sektoren wie Versorger und Basiskonsumgüter unterdurchschnittlich ab.
Die Kapitalströme der Investoren haben sich weitgehend den Leistungstrends angepasst. State Street Global Markets teilt uns mit, dass die Impfstoffnachrichten institutionelle Anleger dazu veranlasst haben, Value-Aktien anstelle von Growth-Aktien zu kaufen. Besonders ausgeprägt war der Aufholhandel im Energiesektor sowie in Branchen wie Banken, Fluggesellschaften und Hotels; diese Trends haben sich nach den jüngsten Zahlen beschleunigt.
Interessanterweise ist ein Großteil der relativen Zuflüsse in Bereiche mit großer Untergewichtspositionierung geflossen. Anstatt Aktien anderweitig direkt zu verkaufen, haben diese großen, längerfristig orientierten Anleger anscheinend ihre Barguthaben reduziert, was zu einer neuen Welle des Vertrauens geführt hat.
Betrachtet man die sektorspezifischen ETFs, sehen wir denselben Trend bei den in Europa und den USA domizilierten ETFs: starke Zuflüsse, wenig Verkäufe in einem bestimmten Sektor und Anleger, die Finanzwerte, Industriewerte, Energie und Nichtbasis-Konsumgüter bevorzugen. Weitere Informationen über die Sektorperformance, die Ströme und die Positionierung der Anleger finden Sie in unserem monatlich aktualisierten Dezember Sector Compass.
Zyklische Sektoren den Value Sektoren vorziehen
Die größten Ströme und Performance-Bewegungen gab es in den Value-Sektoren Energie und Finanzen und frühere Kurzpositionierungen deuten darauf hin, dass wir weitere scharfe Bewegungen sehen könnten. Wir ziehen es jedoch vor, über die zyklischen Sektoren als eine Möglichkeit der Positionierung für das Reflationsargument nachzudenken, da wir einen stärkeren fundamentalen Fall sehen.
Zu den zyklischen Sektoren, die von einem besseren Wirtschaftswachstum profitieren könnten, gehören:
Industrieunternehmen. Eine Belebung des unternehmerischen Selbstvertrauens und der Investitionsausgaben dürfte zu neuen Aufträgen für Maschinen und technische Lösungen führen. Der Sektor ist durch den Flugzeugbau und die Fluggesellschaften (der Index ist in den USA höher als der europäische Index) dem erwarteten Aufschwung der Nachfrage im Reiseverkehr ausgesetzt und ist durch Logistik, Bauwesen und Infrastruktur auf PMIs ausgerichtet.
Rohstoffe. Der Sektor bietet eine ebenso vielfältige Gruppierung, die den Bergbau umfasst (höhere Exponierung in Europa als der US-Index), der von dem jüngsten Anstieg der Preise für Industriemetalle, z.B. Kupfer und Eisenerz, profitieren dürfte. Das größte Gewicht haben die chemischen Hersteller, eine Gruppe von Unternehmen, die wichtige Spezialchemikalien und -gase für viele industrielle Prozesse liefern.
Nichtbasis-Konsumgüter. Dieser Sektor umfasst die Unternehmen, die am stärksten von den erzwungenen sozialen Beschränkungen durch COVID-19 betroffen sind. Restaurants, Einzelhändler und Freizeitanbieter (z.B. Kasinos und Kinos) sollten alle von lockereren Mobilitätsregeln profitieren, sobald der Impfstoff geliefert wird. Online-Einzelhändler haben in diesem Jahr von Veränderungen im Verbraucherverhalten profitiert und könnten dem wirtschaftlichen Aufschwung hinterherhinken. Aus diesem Grund würden wir einen Unterschied machen zwischen dem europäischen Sektor, der eine höhere Exposition gegenüber Automobilherstellern und Luxusgütern aufweist, und den Branchenindizes USA und Welt, die eine hohe Gewichtung von Amazon* haben.
Wie man diese Themen spielt:
SPDR bietet eine Reihe von ETFs an, die es Anlegern ermöglichen, sich in den oben beschriebenen zyklischen Themen zu engagieren. Um mehr über diese ETFs zu erfahren und die vollständige Performance-Historie einzusehen, folgen Sie bitte den untenstehenden Links:
SPDR MSCI World Industrials UCITS ETF (WIND)
SPDR S&P U.S. Industrials Select Sector UCITS ETF (ZPDI)
SPDR MSCI Europe Industrials UCITS ETF (STQ)
SPDR MSCI World Materials UCITS ETF (WMAT)
SPDR S&P U.S. Materials Select Sector UCITS ETF (SXLB)
European-Domiciled ETP Segment Flows(Top/Bottom 5, $mn)
European-Domiciled ETP Asset Category($mn)
Sources: Bloomberg Finance L.P., for the period 26 November – 3 December 2020. Flows are as of date indicated and should not be relied upon as current thereafter. This information should not be considered a recommendation to invest in a particular sector or to buy or sell any security shown. It is not known whether the sectors or securities shown will be profitable in the future.
* This information should not be considered a recommendation to invest in a particular sector or to buy or sell any security shown. It is not known whether the sectors or securities shown will be profitable in the future
Marketing Communication. For Professional Client Use Only.
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2015149.155.1.EMEA.INST
Exp. Date: 31/12/2021