Bereits im Januar veröffentlichten wir eine Notiz mit dem Titel Value is Back and This Time it Could be Here to Stay, In der argumentierten wir, dass die starke relative Performance des Value-Faktors im Dezember 2021 wahrscheinlich auch im Jahr 2022 anhalten wird. Seit Anfang dieses Jahres haben alle drei regionalen SPDR® MSCI Value ETFs ihre jeweiligen Marktbenchmarks übertroffen.1
Wir haben diese Möglichkeit hervorgehoben, weil wir davon ausgingen, dass die Hauptantriebskraft für die Märkte die Normalisierung der Zinspolitik sein würde. Die US-Notenbank ("Fed") und andere Zentralbanken waren gezwungen, die quantitativen Lockerungsprogramme zum Ankauf von Anleihen auslaufen zu lassen und die kurzfristigen Zielsätze anzuheben. Damit soll die hohe Preisinflation in der Wirtschaft bekämpfen werden.
In dieser Bewertung werden Zinssätze von Aktienkursen häufig als Abzinsungssatz für künftige Gewinne verwendet. In den letzten zehn Jahren hat die moderne Geldtheorie ("MMT") die Zentralbanken dazu veranlasst, die Zinssätze künstlich niedrig zu halten. Dies führte zu einer Rallye der Vermögenspreise, die durch die Ausweitung der Gewinnmultiplikatoren angeheizt wurde. Wie Abbildung 1 zeigt, hat dieses Phänomen bei europäischen Aktien die Bewertung von Wachstumswerten überproportional begünstigt.
Abbildung 1: Relatives Kurs-Gewinn-Verhältnis von FWD (letzte 10 Jahre)
Da die Europäische Zentralbank ihre Bereitschaft signalisiert hat, der Fed auf ihrem Weg weg von der MMT und hin zu einem normaleren Zinsumfeld zu folgen, haben wir eine Abflachung dieser Wachstumsbewertungsprämie beobachtet. In der Zwischenzeit liegt die relative Bewertungsprämie nach wie vor über +1 Standardabweichung des langfristigen Medianwerts. Dies deutet darauf hin, dass die Bewertung von Wachstumstiteln noch weiter sinken wird und Value-Titel weiterhin eine interessante Gelegenheit darstellen könnten.
Abbildung 2 zeigt, wie sich die Überperformance in diesem Jahr gleichmäßig auf die Sektoren verteilt hat. Der SPDR® MSCI Europe Value UCITS ETF bildet den MSCI Europe Value Exposure Select Index ab, der bei der Neugewichtung sektorneutral ist. Das bedeutet, dass der Großteil der relativen Wertentwicklung auf die Titelauswahl und nicht nur auf Unterschiede in der Sektorallokation zurückzuführen ist. Dies ist eine wichtige Komponente dieser Anlageform. Die Anleger können sich speziell auf den Faktor konzentrieren, ohne auf einen bestimmten Sektor zu setzen.
Abbildung 2: Fed Funds Rate und Indexrenditen (nachlaufende 6-Monats-Renditen)
Wir glauben, dass die Outperformance des Value-Faktors im bisherigen Jahresverlauf erst der Anfang sein könnte. Insbesondere bei europäischen Aktien, basierend auf der für 2022 erwarteten grundlegenden Änderung der Zentralbankpolitik. Wir möchten die Anleger darauf hinweisen, dass dieser Handel wahrscheinlich nicht ohne Volatilität ablaufen wird. Daher empfehlen wir einen selektiven Ansatz, um ein starkes Engagement in Value-Faktoren anzustreben. Zum Beispiel mit dem SPDR® MSCI Europe Value UCITS ETF.
Anleger, die Value-Strategien nutzen, um von günstigen Aktien zu profitieren, müssen ihre Portfolios vor Aktien schützen. Diese sind nicht ohne Grund günstig. Value Exposure Select-Strategien, wie der SPDR® MSCI Europe Value UCITS ETF, ermöglichen Anlegern ein starkes Engagement in Value-Faktoren. Sie versuchen gleichzeitig, Value-Fallen zu vermeiden, indem sie eine leichte Qualitätskontrolle anwenden. Um mehr über diesen ETF zu erfahren und seine vollständige Performancehistorie einzusehen, besuchen Sie bitte die Fondsseite.
SPDR® ETFs bieten eine Reihe von Value Exposure Select-Strategien in den Bereichen Welt, USA und Europa, die die MSCI Value Exposure Select-Indexfamilie abbilden.
1 Quelle: Morningstar, as of 31 May 2022.
Information Classification: General Access.
For professional clients use only.
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