In den ersten vier Monaten diesen Jahres boten japanische Aktien auf JPY-Basis einen gewissen Schutz vor geopolitischen und wirtschaftlichen Entwicklungen und fielen um 4,2 Prozent1, während der MSCI World (auf USD-Basis) um 13 Prozent fiel.
Für diese relativ starke Performance in lokalen Werten gibt es mehrere Gründe. Die Hauptursache ist die Inflation - oder, genauer gesagt, das Fehlen einer solchen. Während die Verbraucherpreise in den Industrieländern im hohen einstelligen Bereich steigen, wird die Inflation in Japan (gemessen am Verbraucherpreisindex) nach Einschätzung der Ökonomen von State Street Global Advisors im Jahr 2022 bei durchschnittlich etwa 2 Prozent liegen.2
Die niedrige Verbraucherinflation erlaubt es der Bank of Japan, weiterhin eine zurückhaltende Position einzunehmen und damit von der andernorts zu beobachtenden geldpolitischen Ausrichtung abzuweichen. Infolgedessen sind die Renditen über die gesamte Kurve hinweg nach wie vor extrem niedrig: 10-jährige japanische Staatsanleihen rentieren mit 0,22 Prozent3 weitaus weniger als US-Treasuries, die etwa drei Prozent bieten, und 10-jährige deutsche Bundesanleihen mit 0,94 Prozent.
Niedrige Renditen unterstützen die ohnehin schon geringen Bewertungen, wobei das 12-Monats-Kurs-Gewinn-Verhältnis bei 12,4x4 liegt, was einer großzügigen Gewinnrendite von 8,1 Prozent entspricht. Auch die Finanzpolitik wirkt sich positiv aus: Anfang des Jahres wurde ein Staatshaushalt in der Rekordhöhe von 107,6 Billionen JPY (936 Mrd. USD)5 verabschiedet, und es sind zusätzliche Ausgaben geplant, um die Gesellschaft bei steigenden Rohstoffpreisen zu entlasten.
Die Divergenz des geldpolitischen Ansatzes der Bank of Japan, insbesondere im Vergleich zur US-Notenbank (Fed), hat zu einer starken Abwertung des JPY geführt. USD/JPY überschritt im April die Marke von 130 - ein Wert, der seit zwei Jahrzehnten nicht mehr erreicht wurde. Es erübrigt sich zu erwähnen, dass Anleger, die sich für eine Absicherung ihres JPY-Engagements entschieden, weitaus besser dran waren, da der MSCI Japan in USD gerechnet im bisherigen Jahresverlauf 14,8 Prozent verloren hat.
Interessanterweise blieb der JPY stabil, als die Fed am 4. Mai die Zinsen (wie erwartet) um 50 Basispunkte anhob. Das könnte darauf hindeuten, dass US-Zinserhöhungen um einen halben Punkt weitgehend im Wechselkurs eingepreist sind. Anleger, die darin eher eine kurze Pause als ein Ende des JPY-Abschwächungstrends sehen, könnten es jedoch vorziehen, währungsgesicherte Engagements einzugehen.
Die Währung ist ein zweischneidiges Schwert. Wir sind jedoch der Meinung, dass ein schwacher JPY für den MSCI Japan mehr Vorteile als Nachteile mit sich bringen kann, da 47 Prozent der von den Unternehmen im Index erwirtschafteten Einnahmen (nach Marktkapitalisierung gewichtet) aus dem Ausland stammen. Obwohl die hohen Rohstoffpreise bis zu einem gewissen Grad auf die Inputkosten drücken, verbessert eine schwache Währung die Wettbewerbsfähigkeit der Exporteure. Unternehmen, die auf USD lautende Verträge abschließen, sind besonders gut positioniert und profitieren bereits beim Umsatz. Während global tätige Unternehmen, die einen Teil ihrer Einnahmen in Fremdwährungen erwirtschaften und Kosten tragen, bei der Umrechnung in JPY von der Rückführung der Gewinne profitieren.
MSCI Japan Umsatzaufteilung nach Regionen*
Angesichts des schwachen Yen, der niedrigen Renditen, der geringen Bewertung und der Tatsache, dass sich die Weltwirtschaft nach COVID einer normalen Aktivität nähert, scheint der zyklische und exportabhängige MSCI Japan besonders gut positioniert zu sein.
Anleger, die Zugang zu japanischen Aktien suchen, können dies mit SPDR ETFs tun. Um mehr über diese ETFS zu erfahren und die Performance-Historie einzusehen, klicken Sie bitte auf die nachstehenden Links, um die jeweiligen Fondsseiten zu besuchen.
SPDR MSCI Japan EUR Hdg UCITS ETF
1 Quelle: Bloomberg Finance L.P., Stand: 29. April 2022.
2 Quelle: State Street Global Advisors, Stand: 11. März 2022.
3 Quelle: Bloomberg Finance L.P., Stand: 29. April 2022.
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