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Forecasts Quarter 4 2022

Chief Economist
Portfolio Manager

Global Economic Outlook

  • Global economic growth likely falls further below trend in 2023 as the aggressive monetary tightening weighs on activity and consumption.
  • Europe’s energy crisis and the strong dollar are but two of many challenges, while supply chain normalization and slowing demand suggest a disinflationary episode ahead.

Emerging Markets Outlook

  • Sluggish Chinese growth weighs on EM growth performance in 2022, but improvement seems likely in 2023.
  • Uneven terms of trade shocks, strong dollar, and slowing global growth remain headwinds for emerging markets as a whole.

Global Capital Markets

  • With the collapse of equity values in 2022, we are observing meaningful improvement from bottom-up drivers for equity markets. However, we remain cautious given still-elevated risk regimes.
  • The outlook for commodities is more balanced amid weakening economic growth and higher financing costs, but we remain constructive on tight supplies, firm momentum and ongoing geopolitical risks.

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