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Market Forecasts: Q1 2026 January 2026

Chief Economist
Portfolio Manager

Global Economic Outlook

  • The United States continues to outperform expectations, with projected GDP growth of 2.4% in 2026 supported by lower interest rates, resilient consumer spending, and ongoing benefits from AI-driven investments.
  • Global economic growth for 2025 has been revised up to 3.0% on stronger-than-expected results in the US, China, and the eurozone, while the outlook for 2026 remains steady at 2.9% as US momentum balances a moderation in China.
  • Despite trade and policy uncertainties, inflation remains relatively contained, allowing central banks like the Fed and BoE to pursue rate cuts while others retain a cautious stance

Global Capital Markets Outlook

  • While policy related uncertainty has again climbed above longer-term averages, market-based measures of uncertainty and risk appear constructive in our view, and we continue to hold a meaningful overweight position in global equities.
  • In fixed income, our base case is for lower interest rates and stable credit spreads—enough to deliver solid performance and buffer the more growth-exposed investments in a multi-asset portfolio from short-term episodes of volatility.

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