The global economic growth forecast has been nudged higher, but the upgrade is not universal and the expansion slows further in 2024 as high interest rates increasingly take their toll.
That the disinflation trend has taken firmer hold without a recession is a key development. And while minimal additional tightening cannot be entirely discounted, we are essentially at the peak.
Emerging Markets Outlook
China’s sluggish growth remains front and center for the broader EM outlook, but India gains prominence.
As disinflation broadens, select central banks embark on cautious policy easing.
Global Capital Markets
Although we anticipate steadily slowing global economic growth into 2024, we continue to see favorable opportunities in equities — even if the conditions are not as good as earlier in the year.
Despite sharply higher interest rates and cooling economic growth expectations, we remain bearish on bond markets amid challenging market conditions and heightened focus on debt levels and fiscal deficits