Inflation is a significant, though often overlooked risk, that can devastate retirees’ purchasing power. Building a plan today helps to buffer from unpredictability tomorrow.
Target retirement strategies continue to grow as a leading default vehicle, offering professionally managed, age-appropriate portfolios that automatically rebalance in order to keep participants on target. However, there are key differences between providers in how each strategy manages key investment risks as they evolve in importance for participants at each stage of their careers. For young employees entering the workforce, wealth accumulation is the key goal. For those approaching retirement, this fairly straightforward goal is replaced by competing objectives. Soon-to-be retirees need to preserve accumulated wealth while also maintaining enough exposure to growth to address longevity risk — i.e., the risk of running out of money in retirement. But a well-designed target retirement strategy needs to do more than just account for wealth preservation from market volatility; it should also seek to preserve investor purchasing power from the corrosive impact of inflation. Thoughtfully balancing these key investment risks by delivering efficient portfolios while being mindful of potential negative shocks is crucial in seeking to deliver successful retirement outcomes.
Inflation has been largely contained for some time, but a longer view of American history illuminates the severity of this risk. For example, the average investor would have been worse off retiring in 1966 at the beginning of the Great Inflation than at any other time in American history — including the Great Depression. Driven in part by policies aimed to promote economic stability, inflation skyrocketed from above 1% per year in the early 1960s to higher than 14% in 1980.i Retirees drawing down on their savings while investing in a diversified mix of stocks and nominal bonds would have lost more than 70% of their purchasing power during this period, severely compromising their ability to spend in retirement.ii The Great Inflation offers a cautionary tale about the impact unexpected inflation can have on portfolios, underscoring the importance of structurally addressing this risk for the subset of participants most vulnerable to its effects.
While such hyperinflation is less of a concern today, the current inflation outlook is more complex than it has been in quite some time, and inflationary risks are reemerging. The US Consumer Price Index (CPI) has surged to its highest level in nearly 13 years after May’s headline CPI showed an annual rise of 5%, and investors may soon find themselves vulnerable to a sustained move higher in inflation.iii In order to protect their purchasing power, investors should consider making an allocation to inflation-hedging assets, due to their strong historical performance during inflationary periods.
Today, both one and three year forward looking inflation uncertainty as measured by the New York Fed’s Survey of Consumer Expectations have spiked to match their highest levels since the survey’s inception in 2013. As COVID-19 vaccine distribution continues, economies will continue to advance their reopening efforts, and people will begin traveling, shopping, and dining en masse again, exercising what has been more than a year of pent-up demand. But low inventory due to manufacturing shutdowns, agricultural interruptions, and frozen supply chains could upset the supply-and-demand balance and set the stage for inflation to overshoot expectations.
Figure 1: Inflation Uncertainty
Given the uncertain future of both realized and expected inflation, and the risk that inflation poses to investors, we believe that an important strategic objective of the glidepath should be to mitigate the potentially negative impact rising inflation has on a portfolio. In seeking to carry out this objective, two questions need to be answered in order to build an effective inflation-sensitive allocation: (1) When is it most appropriate to include an inflation-hedging allocation, and (2) what is the appropriate mix of asset classes to hedge inflation?
First, where would this allocation be most appropriate in order to improve outcomes? Over long time horizons, traditional asset classes (primarily stocks) have delivered strong returns, suggesting that an effective way to offset inflation over the course of a participant’s career is a meaningful allocation to stocks. However, this relationship only holds up during periods of subdued to moderate inflation, and as time horizons shorten, traditional asset classes may not be a suitable hedge. Looking back over nearly 50 years, we can observe that stocks and nominal bonds have delivered negative real returns in periods of rising inflation. For those retirees seeking to use their accumulated wealth to purchase goods and services in retirement, the potential for negative real returns from traditional asset classes can be especially corrosive. For those older participants, a meaningful allocation to inflation-sensitive asset classes takes on outsized importance.
Figure 2: Real Returns Across Inflation Regimes
Second, what is the appropriate mix of asset classes? An allocation to real assets can provide inflation-hedging potential, diversification to traditional stocks and nominal bonds, and a source of returns. Treasury inflation-protection securities (TIPS) are an obvious place to begin, but an inflation-protection strategy that focuses solely on TIPS won’t accomplish our objective in the most efficient manner or enable us to maximize growth.
In a rising inflationary environment, TIPS will provide inflation protection and perform better than their nominal bond equivalents, but they will likely generate returns that are less than desired as an inflation hedge. Because TIPS are indexed to inflation, their principal adjustments are backward-looking by nature, and as such they tend not to perfectly hedge unexpected inflation. Shifting exposure to a shorter-duration TIPS index can potentially mitigate interest rate volatility and better align with future inflation expectations as shorter duration bonds tend to have a stronger, more positive relationship with inflation. The State Street Target Retirement strategies feature an 18% allocation to Intermediate TIPS in retirement.
Rather than limit our approach to this one core exposure, our strategy instead seeks to create a more efficient inflation protection basket by complementing an allocation to TIPS with additional asset classes such as commodities and real estate investment trusts (REITs). This approach can offer inflation-management benefits at different points within the economic cycle, along with potentially higher long-term return expectations (see Figure 3). Historically, commodities have performed best during periods of rising inflation or unexpected inflation. They have exhibited a strong beta and correlation to inflation, due to their ability to reprice quickly based on economic conditions and shifts in supply-and-demand dynamics. Thus, a small allocation to commodities can be used advantageously to help protect purchasing power and provide portfolios with insulation from unexpected inflation. And REITs have demonstrated the ability to perform well across all three inflationary regimes, particularly during periods of stable and rising inflation, due to pass-through effects where REITs can adjust rents and pass along price increases to tenants. In aggregate, this inflation-hedging strategy allows State Street to meaningfully address inflation risk within the context of the other key risks that participants are facing — accumulation, volatility, and longevity — rather than viewing the problem in isolation.
Figure 3: Asset Class Inflation Beta and Correlation to Inflation
Figure 4: A Greater Focus on Inflation Management
State Street Provides a Meaningful and Diversified Allocation to Inflation Managing Asset Classes
Our approach to balancing key risks has resulted in a consistent level of peer-relative performance in our retirement vintage over time. The idea is to not significantly outperform in any one market environment while exposing investors to expected underperformance in others, but rather to provide a well-diversified mix of investments that can address the key risks that participants face. As testament, the State Street Target Retirement Income fund has outperformed 81% of its peers since its inception in 2005v, delivering a consistent history of strong peer-relative performance across a range of market environments.
Inflation-hedging options have become increasingly prevalent on core menus, allowing do-it-yourself participants to address this key risk through asset classes beyond traditional stocks and bonds. However, investing in inflation-sensitive asset classes on a standalone basis exposes investors to a number of potential issues that may be mitigated through a multi-asset solution. Many plans today offer TIPS funds as a potential inflation hedge, which exposes investors to varying levels of interest-rate risk and may not provide the desired level of sensitivity to unexpected inflation. Further, asset classes like commodities and REITs, which often improve portfolio efficiency in a multi-asset framework, feature considerable volatility on a standalone basis. A multi-asset approach to real assets may be a more appropriate option for plan sponsors seeking to address inflation on the core menu.
State Street offers core menu investors a seasoned, diversified multi-asset strategy composed of a blend of commodities, TIPS, REITs, infrastructure, and natural resource equities. This multi-asset approach, featuring the diversification benefits of five distinct asset classes, allows the strategy to seek a positive real-return in excess of CPI over a full market cycle, similar to the long-term return expectations of a moderate balanced portfolio with a volatility profile in line with a longer-dated TIPS index.
Figure 5: State Street’s Real Asset Strategy Allocation
The Real Asset Strategy is expected to perform best during periods of increasing inflation or rising unexpected inflation. The strategy is meant to be a complement to traditional equity and bond assets, providing further diversification, attractive returns, and a source of income in a low-yielding environment.
ii State Street Global Advisors Defined Contribution. Assuming $500,000 balance at age 65, 4% annual spending rate, allocation of 50% stocks, 50% bonds at age 65, 30% stocks, 50% bonds, 20% cash at age 80. Returns — Stock: S&P 500 Total Return, Bond: 1929–1976 Long Term Govt Bond TR;1977–2016 Barclays US Agg TR, Cash: 0 nominal return.
iii Wall Street Journal, “U.S. Inflation Is Highest in 13 Years as Prices Surge 5%,” June 10, 2021; https://www.wsj.com/articles/us-inflation-consumer-price-index-may-2021-11623288303
iv Survey of Consumer Expectations, © 2013–21 Federal Reserve Bank of New York (FRBNY). Data for developed markets across the world follow a similar pattern.
v FactSet Research Systems-Morningstar, State Street Global Advisors Investment Solutions Group (ISG). As of March 31, 2021.
Number of funds in Morningstar Retirement Income US Universe since inception is 50. Gross Returns have been reduced by 9.4 basis points (0.7833 basis points monthly) to reflect a hypothetical investment management fee in line with industry standards and reflects a higher investment management fee than any existing State Street Institutional Commingled share class. Returns are net administrative costs. © 2021 Morningstar, Inc. All Rights Reserved. The information contained herein: (1) is proprietary to Morningstar and/or its content providers; (2) may not be copied or distributed; (3) does not constitute investment advice offered by Morningstar; and (4) is not warranted to be accurate, complete or timely. Neither Morningstar nor its content providers are responsible for any damages or losses arising from any use of this information. Past performance is not a guarantee of future results. The performance is calculated in US dollars. Investing involves risk including the risk of loss of principal. Please see disclosure slide for important risk disclosures. Income Strategies inception date as of April 1, 2005.
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Diversification does not ensure a profit or guarantee against loss.
Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance.
Asset Allocation is a method of diversification which positions assets among major investment categories. Asset Allocation may be used in an effort to manage risk and enhance returns. It does not, however, guarantee a profit or protect against loss.
Equity securities may fluctuate in value and can decline significantly in response to the activities of individual companies and general market and economic conditions.
Bonds generally present less short-term risk and volatility than stocks, but contain interest rate risk (as interest rates raise, bond prices usually fall); issuer default risk; issuer credit risk; liquidity risk; and inflation risk. These effects are usually pronounced for longer-term securities. Any fixed income security sold or redeemed prior to maturity may be subject to a substantial gain or loss.
Investing involves risk including the risk of loss of principal.
The information provided does not constitute investment advice and it should not be relied on as such. It should not be considered a solicitation to buy or an offer to sell a security. It does not take into account any investor's particular investment objectives, strategies, tax status or investment horizon. You should consult your tax and financial advisor.All information has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but its accuracy is not guaranteed.
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All the index performance results referred to are provided exclusively for comparison purposes only. It should not be assumed that they represent the performance of any particular investment.
Investing in REITs involves certain distinct risks in addition to those risks associated with investing in the real estate industry in general. Equity REITs may be affected by changes in the value of the underlying property owned by the REITs, while mortgage REITs may be affected by the quality of credit extended. REITs are subject to heavy cash flow dependency, default by borrowers and self-liquidation. REITs, especially mortgage REITs, are also subject to interest rate risk (i.e., as interest rates rise, the value of the REIT may decline).
Investing in commodities entail significant risk and is not appropriate for all investors. Commodities investing entail significant risk as commodity prices can be extremely volatile due to wide range of factors. A few such factors include overall market movements, real or perceived inflationary trends, commodity index volatility, international, economic and political changes, change in interest and currency exchange rates.
Assumptions and forecasts used by SSGA in developing the Portfolio’s asset allocation glide path may not be in line with future capital market returns and participant savings activities, which could result in losses near, at or after the target date year or could result in the Portfolio not providing adequate income at and through retirement.
SSGA Target Date Fund are designed for investors expecting to retire around the year indicated in each fund’s name. When choosing a Fund, investors should consider whether they anticipate retiring significantly earlier or later than age 65 even if such investors retire on or near a fund’s approximate target date. There may be other considerations relevant to fund selection and investors should select the fund that best meets their individual circumstances and investment goals. The funds’ asset allocation strategy becomes increasingly conservative as it approaches the target date and beyond. The investment risks of each Fund change over time as its asset allocation changes.
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Exp. Date: 06/30/2022