Forecasts Quarter 4 2021

Global Economic Outlook

  • The global economy continued to recover through the latest quarter, although the recovery remains uneven across countries and sectors amid ongoing COVID-19 difficulties and congestion in supply chains.
  • We raised our inflation forecasts for 2021 and 2022. Although the cyclical peak may be passing, inflationary pressures seem poised to linger into next year, focusing the spotlight on central banks’ response to the changing landscape.

Emerging Markets Outlook

  • Emerging markets have remained in the eye of the COVID-19 storm as the spread of virus variants has contributed to an uneven recovery, notwithstanding a significant improvement in vaccination rates.
  • We have trimmed our EM GDP expansion forecast for 2022, driven by the likely impact of Evergrande’s difficulties on Chinese growth in 2022.

Global Capital Markets

  • Equity markets continue to look attractive despite recent weakness, but with moderating risk regimes, cyclical influences and earnings indicators, a more cautious stance is warranted.
  • Commodities continue to look attractive, although the recent price frenzies seen in certain markets are unlikely to be sustained.