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With global monetary tightening in motion amid exceptionally high inflation, the world economy is entering a slowdown. There is a chance of a growth recession or even something worse.
Signs of normalization in global supply chains have been modest. Firms are now revisiting such arrangements with an eye on shortening and simplifying them.
Emerging Markets Outlook
Risks of further lockdowns under China’s zero-COVID policy reignited worries in Q2 around global supply chains, growth, and inflation.
However, June data implied a material increase in activity at the end of the second quarter, indicating a favorable start to the second half of 2022.
Global Capital Market
The circular risks surrounding inflation, interest rates and economic growth create a difficult backdrop for equity markets, even with the negative returns already witnessed year-to-date.
The prospects for fixed income are more balanced, but vary dramatically by sector, credit quality and maturity.