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Forecasts Quarter 3 2022

Chief Economist
Portfolio Manager

Global Economic Outlook

  •  With global monetary tightening in motion amid exceptionally high inflation, the world economy is entering a slowdown. There is a chance of a growth recession or even something worse.
  • Signs of normalization in global supply chains have been modest. Firms are now revisiting such arrangements with an eye on shortening and simplifying them.

Emerging Markets Outlook

  • Risks of further lockdowns under China’s zero-COVID policy reignited worries in Q2 around global supply chains, growth, and inflation.
  • However, June data implied a material increase in activity at the end of the second quarter, indicating a favorable start to the second half of 2022.

Global Capital Market

  • The circular risks surrounding inflation, interest rates and economic growth create a difficult backdrop for equity markets, even with the negative returns already witnessed year-to-date.
  • The prospects for fixed income are more balanced, but vary dramatically by sector, credit quality and maturity.

More on Market Outlooks