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        Will These Grey Swans Take Flight in 2024?

        Our Global Market Outlook showcases our current investment views. But what about the less likely scenarios that, if they happened, could have a significant impact?

        1

        The Breakup of the Magnificent Seven

        What if regulators take aim at these companies and Big Technology? Is this what stops the Magnificent Seven’s reign of market dominance?

        2

        Banking Stress Is Back

        Could risks in the non-financial sector trigger a sharp sell-off of debt securities that creates a serious blowback on exposed banks?

        3

        Geopolitical Turbulence Drives Oil and USD Higher

        In a world beset by widespread turmoil, will investors still target traditional safe-haven assets?

        4

        Yen Breaks 100

        If the Bank of Japan departs from negative rates more quickly and by more than anticipated, the yen could appreciate considerably.

        5

        The Boom Returns — A Positivity Miracle

        Not all surprises are negative. This Grey Swan points to a positivity ‘miracle’ driven by AI and green energy investments.

        6

        Artists Adopt Digital Assets

        Digital influencers and celebrities drive disruption of business models in entertainment industries, with knock-on effects for financial services.

        Global Chief Investment Officer Lori Heinel explains Grey Swans and shares our thinking about outlier scenarios that diverge from our base case for 2024.

        Read our 2024 Grey Swans

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        Meet the Authors

        Bio Image of Lori Heinel

        Lori Heinel, CFA

        Global Chief Investment Officer

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        Bio Image of Simona M Mocuta

        Simona M Mocuta

        Chief Economist

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        Bio Image of Elliot Hentov

        Elliot Hentov, Ph.D.

        Head of Macro Policy Research

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        Bio Image of Altaf Kassam

        Altaf Kassam, CFA

        EMEA Head of Investment Strategy & Research

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        Bio Image of Matthew Nest

        Matthew Nest, CFA

        Global Head of Active Fixed Income

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        Bio Image of Esther Baroudy

        Esther Baroudy, CFA

        Portfolio Manager

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        Bio Image of Aaron R Hurd

        Aaron R Hurd, FRM

        Senior Portfolio Manager

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        Bio Image of Dane Smith

        Dane Smith

        Head of North American Investment Strategy & Research

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        Bio Image of Matthew J Bartolini

        Matthew J Bartolini, CFA, CAIA

        Head of SPDR Americas Research

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        Download the full 2024 Grey Swans here.

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