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Points clés
Les sondages montrent que l’humeur des Américains est plutôt pessimiste et que l’électorat désapprouve Trump sur de nombreux problèmes clés, selon RealClearPolitics. Le sentiment médiatique suggère que Trump perd du terrain sur Biden à la fois dans le pays tout entier et dans quelques “swing states” importants.
Certains éléments tendant à prouver que les effets sectoriels (la technologie en particulier) sont des facteurs plus sensibles en période électorale que la taille de capitalisation ou les facteurs ‘smart beta’.
Les investisseurs semblent généralement adopter un positionnement prudent sur leurs portefeuilles en amont de l’élection et ne se ré aventurer lentement dans les actions qu’après.
C’est le momentum macro, plus que l’état actuel de l’économie, qui devrait être important pour cette élection et Trump est pour l’heure en retard par rapport aux candidats ayant été réélus par le passé sur quelques indicateurs clés.
Les thèmes politiques qui émergent avant l’élection présidentielle de 2020
Thème politique | Impact attendu en cas de changement de politique (victoire démocrate) |
Hausse de l’impôt sur les sociétés | Affecterait négativement tous les secteurs sauf l’IT et l’Immobilier |
Taux d’imposition plus élevé des bénéfices réalisés à l’étranger | Impact négatif principalement sur les Services de Communication, la Santé et la Tech |
Taxe sur les salaires plus élevée pour les hauts revenus | Impact négatif sur les Services de Communication, la Tech et les Financières surtout |
Politiques environnementales/climatiques | Impact négatif sur l’Énergie et, dans une certaine meure, les Matériaux et l’Industrie. Les Utilities sortiraient gagnantes de politiques plus vertes |
Protection du consommateur et mesures antitrust | Les Services de Communication seraient surtout affectés |
Santé | La Santé (Biotechnologies/Pharmacie et Services de Santé sont plus vulnérables que les Équipements de Santé) |
Réformes du marché du travail | Consommation de Base et Consommation Discrétionnaire sont vulnérables à une hausse du salaire minimum. La Tech et les Services de Communication peuvent bénéficier d’un assouplissement des lois sur l’immigration |
Dépense publique | Matériaux, Industrie et Santé pourraient en bénéficier. L’impact sur l’Aérospatial et la Défense serait assez équilibré |
Petites entreprises | Pourraient sous-performer par rapport aux grandes capitalisations : les petites entreprises surperforment plutôt quand la balance penche côté Républicains dans les récentes élections |
Résultats potentiels
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