Are you sure you want to change languages?
The page you are visiting uses a different locale than your saved profile. Do you want to change your locale?
Elections US : Investir en plein risque politique
Points clés
Les sondages montrent que l’humeur des Américains est plutôt pessimiste et que l’électorat désapprouve Trump sur de nombreux problèmes clés, selon RealClearPolitics. Le sentiment médiatique suggère que Trump perd du terrain sur Biden à la fois dans le pays tout entier et dans quelques “swing states” importants.
Certains éléments tendant à prouver que les effets sectoriels (la technologie en particulier) sont des facteurs plus sensibles en période électorale que la taille de capitalisation ou les facteurs ‘smart beta’.
Les investisseurs semblent généralement adopter un positionnement prudent sur leurs portefeuilles en amont de l’élection et ne se ré aventurer lentement dans les actions qu’après.
C’est le momentum macro, plus que l’état actuel de l’économie, qui devrait être important pour cette élection et Trump est pour l’heure en retard par rapport aux candidats ayant été réélus par le passé sur quelques indicateurs clés.
Les thèmes politiques qui émergent avant l’élection présidentielle de 2020
| Thème politique | Impact attendu en cas de changement de politique (victoire démocrate) |
| Hausse de l’impôt sur les sociétés | Affecterait négativement tous les secteurs sauf l’IT et l’Immobilier |
| Taux d’imposition plus élevé des bénéfices réalisés à l’étranger | Impact négatif principalement sur les Services de Communication, la Santé et la Tech |
| Taxe sur les salaires plus élevée pour les hauts revenus | Impact négatif sur les Services de Communication, la Tech et les Financières surtout |
| Politiques environnementales/climatiques | Impact négatif sur l’Énergie et, dans une certaine meure, les Matériaux et l’Industrie. Les Utilities sortiraient gagnantes de politiques plus vertes |
| Protection du consommateur et mesures antitrust | Les Services de Communication seraient surtout affectés |
| Santé | La Santé (Biotechnologies/Pharmacie et Services de Santé sont plus vulnérables que les Équipements de Santé) |
| Réformes du marché du travail | Consommation de Base et Consommation Discrétionnaire sont vulnérables à une hausse du salaire minimum. La Tech et les Services de Communication peuvent bénéficier d’un assouplissement des lois sur l’immigration |
| Dépense publique | Matériaux, Industrie et Santé pourraient en bénéficier. L’impact sur l’Aérospatial et la Défense serait assez équilibré |
| Petites entreprises | Pourraient sous-performer par rapport aux grandes capitalisations : les petites entreprises surperforment plutôt quand la balance penche côté Républicains dans les récentes élections |
Résultats potentiels
- Scénario A: Une victoire franche des Démocrates : Nous favorisons les Énergies non fossiles/l’ESG, les Infrastructures, la Santé, les actions à forts dividendes.
- Scenario B: Un Président Démocrate, un Sénat Républicain : Nous favorisons les Énergies non fossiles/l’ESG, les Infrastructures, la Consommation de Base et Discrétionnaire.
- Scenario C: Une victoire contestée de Biden ou une victoire de Trump : Nous favorisons les actions à faible volatilité, la Consommation de Base, les Utilities.
- Scenario D: Réélection de Trump, statu quo: Nous favorisons les infrastructures, les Utilities, le secteur Pétrole & Gaz, les petites et moyennes capitalisations.
Marketing communication
Investing involves risk including the risk of loss of principal.
Abu Dhabi: State Street Global Advisors Limited, ADGM Branch, Al Khatem Tower, Suite 42801, Level 28, ADGM Square, Al Maryah Island, P.O. Box 764604, Abu Dhabi (United Arab Emirates) Regulated by ADGM Financial Services Regulatory Authority. T: +971 2 245 9000. F: +971 (0)4-4372818.
Australia: State Street Global Advisors, Australia, Limited (ABN 42 003 914 225) is the holder of an Australian Financial Services Licence (AFSL Number 238276). Registered office: Level 14, 420 George Street, Sydney, NSW 2000, Australia T: +612 9240-7600. F: +612 9240-7611.
Belgium: State Street Global Advisors Belgium, Chaussée de La Hulpe 120, 1000 Brussels, Belgium. Telephone: 32 2 663 2036, Facsimile: 32 2 672 2077. SSGA Belgium is a branch office of State Street Global Advisors Ireland Limited. State Street Global Advisors Ireland Limited, registered in Ireland with company number 145221, authorised and regulated by the Central Bank of Ireland, and whose registered office is at 78 Sir John Rogerson’s Quay, Dublin 2.
Canada: State Street Global Advisors, Ltd., 1981 McGill College Avenue, Suite 500 , Montreal, Quebec, H3A 3A8, T: +514 282 2400 and 30 Adelaide Street East Suite 800, Toronto, Ontario M5C 3G6. T: +647 775 5900.
France: State Street Global Advisors Ireland Limited, Paris Branch (“State Street Global Advisors Paris Branch”) is a branch of State Street Global Advisors Ireland Limited, registered in Ireland with company number 145221, authorised and regulated by the Central Bank of Ireland, and whose registered office is at 78 Sir John Rogerson’s Quay, Dublin 2. State Street Global Advisors Paris Branch is registered in France with company number RCS Nanterre 832 734 602, and its office is located at Immeuble Défense Plaza, 23-25 rue Delarivière-Lefoullon, 92064 Paris La Défense Cedex, France. Telephone: (+33) 1 44 45 40 00. Facsimile: (+33) 1 44 45 41 92.
Germany: State Street Global Advisors GmbH, Brienner Strasse 59, D-80333 Munich. Authorised and regulated by the Bundesanstalt für Finanzdienstleistungsaufsicht (“BaFin”). Registered with the Register of Commerce Munich HRB 121381. T: +49 (0)89-55878-400. F: +49 (0)89-55878-440.
Hong Kong: State Street Global Advisors Asia Limited, 68/F, Two International Finance Centre, 8 Finance Street, Central, Hong Kong. T: +852 2103-0288. F: +852 2103-0200.
Ireland: State Street Global Advisors Ireland Limited is regulated by the Central Bank of Ireland. Registered office address 78 Sir John Rogerson’s Quay, Dublin 2. Registered Number: 145221. T: +353 (0)1 776 3000. F: +353 (0)1 776 3300.
Italy: State Street Global Advisors Ireland Limited Milan Branch (Sede Secondaria di Milano) (“State Street Global Advisors Milan Branch”) is a branch of State Street Global Advisors Ireland Limited, registered in Ireland with company number 145221, authorised and regulated by the Central Bank of Ireland, and whose registered office is at 78 Sir John Rogerson’s Quay, Dublin 2. State Street Global Advisors Milan Branch is registered in Italy with company number 10495250960 - R.E.A. 2535585 and VAT number 10495250960, and its office is located at Via Ferrante Aporti, 10 - 20125 Milano, Italy. Telephone: (+39) 02 32066 100. Facsimile: (+39) 02 32066 155.
Netherlands: State Street Global Advisors Netherlands, Apollo Building, 7th floor Herikerbergweg 29 1101 CN Amsterdam, Netherlands. Telephone: 31 20 7181701. SSGA Netherlands is a branch office of State Street Global Advisors Ireland Limited, registered in Ireland with company number 145221, authorised and regulated by the Central Bank of Ireland, and whose registered office is at 78 Sir John Rogerson’s Quay, Dublin 2.
Singapore: State Street Global Advisors Singapore Limited, 168, Robinson Road, #33-01 Capital Tower, Singapore 068912 (Company Reg. No: 200002719D, regulated by the Monetary Authority of Singapore). T: +65 6826-7555. F: +65 6826-7501.
Switzerland: State Street Global Advisors AG, Beethovenstr. 19, CH-8027 Zurich. Registered with the Register of Commerce Zurich CHE-105.078.458. T: +41 (0)44 245 70 00. F: +41 (0)44 245 70 16.
United Kingdom: State Street Global Advisors Limited. Authorised and regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority. Registered in England. Registered No. 2509928. VAT No. 5776591 81. Registered office: 20 Churchill Place, Canary Wharf, London, E14 5HJ. T: 020 3395 6000. F: 020 3395 6350.
United States: State Street Global Advisors, 1 Iron Street, Boston, MA 02210-1641.
The whole or any part of this work may not be reproduced, copied or transmitted or any of its contents disclosed to third parties without SSGA’s express written consent.
The information provided does not constitute investment advice and it should not be relied on as such. It should not be considered a solicitation to buy or an offer to sell a security. It does not take into account any investor's particular investment objectives, strategies, tax status or investment horizon. You should consult your tax and financial advisor. All information is from SSGA unless otherwise noted and has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but its accuracy is not guaranteed. There is no representation or warranty as to the current accuracy, reliability or completeness of, nor liability for, decisions based on such information and it should not be relied on as such.
The views expressed in this material are the views of Daniel Ung through the period ended 1 September 2020 and are subject to change based on market and other conditions. This document contains certain statements that may be deemed forward-looking statements. Please note that any such statements are not guarantees of any future performance and actual results or developments may differ materially from those projected.
The information contained in this communication is not a research recommendation or ‘investment research’ and is classified as a ‘Marketing Communication’ in accordance with the Markets in Financial Instruments Directive (2014/65/EU) or applicable Swiss regulation. This means that this marketing communication (a) has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research (b) is not subject to any prohibition on dealing ahead of the dissemination of investment research.
© 2020 State Street Corporation - All Rights Reserved.
3231074.1.1.GBL.RTL
Exp. Date: 30/09/2021