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Global High Yield Update—Q2 2025

Global High Yield: Limited Spread Upside, Steady Carry

Executive Summary:

  • Global High Yield (GHY) spreads ended H1 2025 flat, recovering from a sharp 150 bps widening. Risk assets remained buoyant despite tariff shocks, geopolitical tensions, and a US credit downgrade, supported by a soft-landing narrative and expectations of Fed easing.
  • HY issuers demonstrated solid earnings and balance sheet strength, with improving EBITDA growth, stable margins, and manageable leverage. Refinancing activity helped mitigate maturity wall concerns, while fund flows rebounded, reinforcing market stability.
  • With spreads near historical tights, valuations offer limited cushion for tail risks. However, attractive all-in yields (~7%), healthy corporate fundamentals, investor demand and improving credit conditions continue to support a coupon-like return environment.

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