Will These Grey Swans Take Flight in 2025?
Our Global Market Outlook showcases our current investment views for 2025. But what about the less-likely scenarios — our Grey Swans — that could have a significant impact this year if they were to happen?
1
Europe Surprises
What if Europe countered humdrum expectations with a strong resurgence? Could this help lift
investors’ perception of Europe as an investment destination?
2
China and an Emerging Markets Renaissance
What if the Chinese government really gets serious about delivering a strong reform? This, more than anything, could bring new life to the emerging markets asset class.
3
Are the 2020s the new 1920s — or 1970s?
Are we in the new “Roaring Twenties” (lower regulatory barriers for business, but with policy mis-steps that proved disastrous)? Or a repeat of the 1970s, with stagflation and low economic growth — but where tough policy choices ultimately usher in decades of prosperity?
4
A Quantum Breakthrough
A transformative breakthrough in quantum computing research resets expectations around the timing and scalability of the technology — creating an urgency for the financial services industry.
5
Power Disruption
Whether by accident, natural disaster, or malicious design, a major disruption leaves a significant section of the US without stable electricity.
6
A Trump Plaza Accord
President Trump uses the threat of tariffs to force a coordinated intervention to weaken the US dollar — with knock-on effects for US assets and beyond.
Global Chief Investment Officer Lori Heinel explains our Grey Swans for 2025 — and the potential implications for investors.
