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Emerging Market Debt Market Commentary: Q3 2025

Emerging Market (EM) debt markets navigated a volatile quarter that was shaped by escalating trade tensions, fiscal challenges, persistent geopolitical risks, and evolving market expectations around the US Federal Reserve’s (Fed) policy rate path for the remainder of the year. The quarter began under a cloud following a renewal of tariff disputes—the US administration announced new sector-specific levies on major EM economies, with implementation slated for August. India faced a 50% tariff because of its Russian oil imports, while Brazil and other EM countries were also targeted with higher levies. These developments triggered country-specific yield volatility, particularly in EM Asia, though the broader market reaction remained largely contained. Market sentiment improved when the US postponed its punitive tariffs on Chinese products and extended trade talks by 90 days. Tariff negotiations between the US and several major EM economies continued through the quarter against the backdrop of macroeconomic uncertainty and political gyrations.

Overall, EM local currency debt posted positive returns in the three months, aided by currency gains against the US dollar and widespread interest rate cuts. EM hard currency bonds also delivered gains, driven by sovereign spread tightening and strong issuance activity. This was particularly evident in the high yield segment of the JP Morgan EMBI Global Diversified Index, where spreads compressed 41bps in the three months (see below chart). However, the tightening was not universal, with the sell-off in Argentina’s dollar bonds and other idiosyncratic developments in the lower-rated segment driving spreads wider. A rebound in global liquidity conditions, risk-on sentiment, and increasing FX reserves supported inflows into EM debt. Net flows in the quarter for hard currency and local currency bonds were +$7.0bn and +$4.3bn, respectively. (Source: JP Morgan).

To learn more about what drove emerging market debt returns in Q3 2025, please download the full commentary.

Looking forward, rate cuts, a weak US dollar, and robust EM fundamentals set the stage for potential return opportunities in emerging market debt. Find out why we’re optimistic about the months ahead in our EMD Outlook.

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