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Global Market Outlook Mid-Year 2019
Further to Run
Despite trade risks, the economic cycle should continue given central banks’ accommodative policy stance.
Mid-Year Report
June 2019
In This Issue
From the CIO
Look Beyond the Noise as the Cycle Extends
We believe the biggest lesson of the past 12 months is to look through the temporary noise and consider where fundamentals might be taking us over the longer term.
Macroeconomic Outlook
Policy Uncertainty Weighs on Global Economic Growth Prospects
While economic momentum has slowed and the trade war looms large, multiple signs of stabilization in the first half could, under the right conditions, keep global growth on track.
Equities Outlook
Equity-Market Cycle Should Continue, With Spikes in Volatility
Macro factors should continue to support growth, but investors need to be cautious as volatility could easily spike given the significant geopolitical and growth risks facing the global economy.
Fixed Income Outlook
As the Credit Cycle Lengthens, Risks Build
With the Fed switching to a more dovish policy stance, this already lengthy cycle could extend further. Nonetheless, we would expect fatigue to set in eventually, not least because risks are building.
Emerging Markets Outlook
Emerging-Market Giants Drive Growth Despite Trade Risk
China’s stimulus and the US Federal Reserve’s policy stance are creating conditions for better growth in emerging markets (EMs), despite the US-China trade war and still-strong US dollar. China and India are expected to drive EM and global growth in the coming years.
About the Global Market Outlook
As investment challenges grow more complex, our Global Market Outlook is designed to alert investors to portfolio risks and opportunities in the coming year, based on the research of our investment teams. Research around near-term and longer-term market issues is at the heart of who we are as investors. It drives the kinds of outcome-oriented portfolios we create for clients, drawing on the full range of our beta and alpha solutions as well as our asset-allocation expertise.