Global Market Outlook Mid-Year 2019


Further to Run

GMO Mid-Year 2019

 

Despite trade risks, the economic cycle should continue given central banks’ accommodative policy stance.


Mid-Year Report 

June 2019


In This Issue

From the CIO

Look Beyond the Noise as the Cycle Extends

We believe the biggest lesson of the past 12 months is to look through the temporary noise and consider where fundamentals might be taking us over the longer term.

June 21, 2019 · By Rick Lacille

 

 

 

 

From the CIO

Macroeconomic Outlook

Policy Uncertainty Weighs on Global Economic Growth Prospects

While economic momentum has slowed and the trade war looms large, multiple signs of stabilization in the first half could, under the right conditions, keep global growth on track.

June 21, 2019 · By Simon Mocuta

 

 

macro-outlook

Equities Outlook

Equity-Market Cycle Should Continue, With Spikes in Volatility

Macro factors should continue to support growth, but investors need to be cautious as volatility could easily spike given the significant geopolitical and growth risks facing the global economy.

June 21, 2019 · By Gaurav Mallik

 

 

equities-outlook

Fixed Income Outlook

As the Credit Cycle Lengthens, Risks Build

With the Fed switching to a more dovish policy stance, this already lengthy cycle could extend further. Nonetheless, we would expect fatigue to set in eventually, not least because risks are building.

June 21, 2019 · By Matthew John Nest, Keith M. Snell and Aaron R. Hurd

 

 

fixed-income-outlook

Emerging Markets Outlook

Emerging-Market Giants Drive Growth Despite Trade Risk

China’s stimulus and the US Federal Reserve’s policy stance are creating conditions for better growth in emerging markets (EMs), despite the US-China trade war and still-strong US dollar. China and India are expected to drive EM and global growth in the coming years.

June 21, 2019 · By Laura Ann Ostrander

 

 

emerging-markets-outlook