Skip to main content
Insights

Market Forecasts: Q4 2025

Chief Economist
Portfolio Manager

Global Economic Outlook

  • The US is expected to lead growth among advanced economies, aided by cumulative Fed rate cuts of 150 basis points by end-2026; the ECB is expected to hold steady, while the BoE will likely accelerate rate cuts to catch up.
  • Short-term risks remain as countries work to finalize US trade deals, but the medium-term outlook is more positive; our forecast is for global growth of 2.8% in 2025 and 2.9% in 2026.
  • Despite persistent uncertainties in trade, fiscal, and geopolitical conditions, the inflationary impact from tariffs has been relatively muted, while policy support is set to moderate risks over time.

Global Capital Markets Outlook

  • Equities entered the final quarter of 2025 with strong momentum, but are expensive relative to history in all global markets. While those steep valuations bear monitoring, we see broad support for equity market progress with respect to good (but not euphoric) market sentiment, potential for strong earnings growth, and favorable seasonal patterns.
  • Gold also suffers from what might be characterized as elevated valuations—in this case the market sentiment is clearly euphoric. However, the economic and technical trends that have supported gold remain in place and we think they outweigh sentiment concerns.

More on multi asset solutions