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Market Forecasts: Q2 2025

Chief Economist
Portfolio Manager

Global Economic Outlook

  • Sentiment toward the global economy is less positive than in December, reflecting the impact of US tariff announcements. A recession is still unlikely but downside risks to growth have increased.
  • The European Union, and Germany in particular, are stepping up fiscal measures to address infrastructure and defense concerns — a long overdue development that may offset tariff worries and bolster consumer and business sentiment.
  • Global monetary easing will continue through the remainder of 2025. Inflation above central bank targets is unlikely to deter major banks from lowering rates in the coming months, with Japan remaining the exception with rates likely to be increased there.

Figure 1: Rising Risks Threaten Growth Forecasts

Market Forecasts Q2 2025

Global Capital Markets Outlook

  • Principles and process over point estimates — specific numerical forecasts may be less effective in an environment characterized by dramatic changes in the policy landscape.
  • Risk reduction is most sensible for the time being and we’ve taken down absolute risk (by moving to a modest equity underweight) as well as relative risk (by reducing the size of many of our active positions).

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