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Will These Grey Swans Take Flight in 2024?

Our Global Market Outlook showcases our current investment views. But what about the less likely scenarios that, if they happened, could have a significant impact?


The Breakup of the Magnificent Seven

What if regulators take aim at these companies and Big Technology? Is this what stops the Magnificent Seven’s reign of market dominance?


Banking Stress Is Back

Could risks in the non-financial sector trigger a sharp sell-off of debt securities that creates a serious blowback on exposed banks?


Geopolitical Turbulence Drives Oil and USD Higher

In a world beset by widespread turmoil, will investors still target traditional safe-haven assets?


Yen Breaks 100

If the Bank of Japan departs from negative rates more quickly and by more than anticipated, the yen could appreciate considerably.


The Boom Returns — A Positivity Miracle

Not all surprises are negative. This Grey Swan points to a positivity ‘miracle’ driven by AI and green energy investments.


Artists Adopt Digital Assets

Digital influencers and celebrities drive disruption of business models in entertainment industries, with knock-on effects for financial services.

Global Chief Investment Officer Lori Heinel explains Grey Swans and shares our thinking about outlier scenarios that diverge from our base case for 2024.

Meet the Authors

Bio Image of Lori Heinel

Lori Heinel, CFA

Global Chief Investment Officer

Bio Image of Simona M Mocuta

Simona M Mocuta

Chief Economist

Bio Image of Elliot Hentov

Elliot Hentov, Ph.D.

Head of Macro Policy Research

Bio Image of Altaf Kassam

Altaf Kassam, CFA

EMEA Head of Investment Strategy & Research

Bio Image of Matthew Nest

Matthew Nest, CFA

Global Head of Active Fixed Income

Bio Image of Esther Baroudy

Esther Baroudy, CFA

Portfolio Manager

Bio Image of Aaron R Hurd

Aaron R Hurd, FRM

Senior Portfolio Manager

Bio Image of Dane Smith

Dane Smith

Head of North American Investment Strategy & Research

Bio Image of Matthew J Bartolini

Matthew J Bartolini, CFA, CAIA

Head of SPDR Americas Research

Download the full 2024 Grey Swans here.