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Market Forecasts: Q4 2023

Chief Economist
Portfolio Manager

Global Economic Outlook

  • The global economic growth forecast has been nudged higher, but the upgrade is not universal and the expansion slows further in 2024 as high interest rates increasingly take their toll.
  • That the disinflation trend has taken firmer hold without a recession is a key development. And while minimal additional tightening cannot be entirely discounted, we are essentially at the peak.

Emerging Markets Outlook

  • China’s sluggish growth remains front and center for the broader EM outlook, but India gains prominence.
  • As disinflation broadens, select central banks embark on cautious policy easing.

Global Capital Markets

  • Although we anticipate steadily slowing global economic growth into 2024, we continue to see favorable opportunities in equities — even if the conditions are not as good as earlier in the year.
  • Despite sharply higher interest rates and cooling economic growth expectations, we remain bearish on bond markets amid challenging market conditions and heightened focus on debt levels and fiscal deficits