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Die europäischen High Yield Anleihen hatten einen starken Lauf und die risikoreichen Sommermonate ermöglichten weitere Gewinne. Doch nun ziehen einige dunklere Wolken am Horizont auf, da ein Wiederaufflammen der COVID-19-Pandemie die Wirtschaft aufs Neue bedroht.
Zwar sind die Renditen für Hochzinsanleihen seit Jahresbeginn nach wie vor negativ, gleichzeitig fiel die anfängliche Erholung nach dem Ausverkauf im März sehr stark aus und zog eine zweite Welle nach sich, die bis in den Juni hinein anzog. Die Sommermonate waren etwas langsamer, trotzdem liegen die Renditen des Bloomberg Barclays Liquidity Screened Euro High Yield Bond Index für die letzten drei Monate weiterhin konstant bei etwa 3%. Die drei Haupttreiber waren dabei:
Jetzt werfen das Wiederaufflammen von COVID-19 und Gespräche über neue regionale Lockdowns die Frage auf, inwieweit sich die Wirtschaftszahlen zukünftig weiter werden verbessern können. Diese Entwicklung könnte voraussichtlich als Gegenwind für eine weitere High Yield Performance wirken. Angesichts der Renditen von über 3,5%1 ist Kapitalzuwachs für Inhaber von High Yield Fonds jedoch weniger besorgniserregend.
Trotzdem sollte High Yield, solange sich die Risikobereitschaft stabilisiert, weiterhin eine gute Performance erzielen können. Wie Abbildung 1 zeigt, weist der Bloomberg Barclays Euro High Yield Index eine hohe Korrelation mit dem S&P 500 auf, wodurch er klar in der Kategorie der Risikoanlagen angesiedelt ist. Seit März ist die Reaktion des Index auf einige der größeren Ausschläge bei Aktien begrenzt. In dieser Hinsicht könnte es hier ein gewisses Interesse von Marktteilnehmern geben, die wegen der jüngsten Instabilität bei Aktien begonnen haben, ihr Engagement zu reduzieren und stattdessen Hochzinsanleihen zu bevorzugen.
Abbildung 1: Zwar sind Hochzinsanleihen Risikoaktiva, jedoch waren sie bisher stabiler als Aktien
Der Bloomberg Barclays Euro High Yield Index ist in diesem Monat um weitere 0,5% gestiegen (Stand: 18. September), was größtenteils auf eine Erholung in Sektoren zurückzuführen ist, die weiterhin hinter der Performance des Gesamtindex zurückblieben. Die drei Sektoren mit der besten Performance waren zyklische Konsumgüter (+1,07%), Industriewerte (+0,93%) und Finanzwerte (+0,88%), also die drei Sektoren, die bis dato im Jahresvergleich um 3% oder mehr rückläufig waren. Zusammengenommen machen sie fast die Hälfte des Indexgewichts aus, was bedeutet, dass ihre Gewinne einen bedeutenden Einfluss auf den Gesamtindex hatten.
Dieses "Aufholspiel" wird besonders deutlich, wenn man die Indexrenditen nach Ratingbereichen aufteilt. Als die EZB ihre Kreditkäufe intensivierte, waren Investment-Grade-Anleihen die ersten, die sich erholten. Diese Entwicklung drängte Investoren auf der Suche nach Renditen zunächst in das höher bewertete Segment des Universums der Nicht-Investment-Grade-Papiere – und dann nach und nach in das Segment der niedriger bewerteten Papiere. In diesem Fall waren die höchsten Renditen im September mit 5,4% bzw. 9,6% bei CAA2- und CAA3-bewerteten Anleihen zu verzeichnen.
Solange sich keine Verschlechterung der Marktrisikobereitschaft abzeichnet, wird diese Konvergenz der Spreads wahrscheinlich ein Schlüsselfaktor für die Performance von High Yield Fonds bleiben. Obwohl bei Anleihen mit niedrigerem Rating ein höheres Ausfallrisiko eingepreist werden muss, liegt die Rendite bis zur Fälligkeit bei den Tranchen mit B3 und niedrigerem Rating bei über 6%, während sie beim höchsten Papier ohne Investment Grade, BA1, nur fast 2% erreicht. Da die Kursdifferenz zwischen dem Bloomberg Barclays Pan-Euro HY BB Rating Only und dem CCC Rating Only immer noch fast 50 Basispunkte über dem Durchschnitt der Jahre 2014 bis 2019 liegt, besteht noch Spielraum für eine weitere Verengung der Spreads.
Nachdem die Sommermonate für Hochzinsanleger sehr freundlich ausgefallen sind, verdunkelt das Wiederaufflammen von COVID-19 die weiteren Aussichten. Es gibt jedoch mehrere Gründe, warum wir glauben, dass eine wesentliche Ausweitung der Spreads zum jetzigen Zeitpunkt nicht stattfindet:
Insgesamt dürften die Bedenken hinsichtlich COVID-19 in naher Zukunft vorerst nicht zurückgehen, was einen volatileren Hintergrund für High Yield Wertpapiere schaffen wird. Allerdings könnten ein robusterer Unternehmenssektor und die allgemeine Widerstandsfähigkeit, die High Yield bereits gegenüber früheren Phasen der Aktienvolatilität gezeigt hat, die Preisrisiken nach unten begrenzen. Angesichts der Tatsache, dass die Anleger nach wie vor auf der Suche nach festverzinslichen Renditen sind, könnte jede Rückkehr der Risikobereitschaft, wie wir sie im Juni 2020 erlebt haben, als eine Gelegenheit betrachtet werden, Vermögenswerte hinzuzufügen, die einen beständig starken Fluss von Kuponzahlungen liefern.
Anleger, die Zugang zu europäischen Hochzinsanleihen suchen, können dies über einen SPDR-ETF tun. Um mehr über den ETF zu erfahren und die vollständige Performance-Historie einzusehen, folgen Sie bitte dem Link unten:
SPDR® Bloomberg Barclays Euro High Yield Bond UCITS ETF (Dist)
Quelle: Bloomberg Finance L.P., für den Zeitraum vom 9. bis 17. September 2020. Die Ströme sind zum angegebenen Datum und sollten danach nicht mehr als aktuell angesehen werden.
* This information should not be considered a recommendation to invest in a particular sector, or security therein, shown above.
1Quelle: Bloomberg Finance, Stand 18. September 2020
2Stand 22. September 2020
Marketing Communication. For Professional Client Use Only.
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2015149.143.1.EMEA.INST
Exp. Date: 30/09/2021