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Faszination Rohstoff-Superzyklus
Eine Kombination von verschiedenen Faktoren führt zu einer starken Performance von Rohstoffen. Vor allem Edelmetalle haben den Sektor aufgrund ihrer verschiedenen Anwendungsmöglichkeiten und niedrigen Lagerbestände angetrieben. Mit Blick auf die Zukunft gibt es bedeutende Themen, die den gesamten Sektor antreiben könnten, darunter die Reflation, die Nachfrage aus China und die Konjunktursensibilität.
Investoren sehen den Superzyklus
Wir haben gesehen, dass die Reflation als eine Folge des wirtschaftlichen Aufschwungs die Aufmerksamkeit der Anleger auf sich gezogen hat. Zu den Schlagzeilen gehört auch der Rohstoff-Superzyklus und seine Auswirkungen auf Aktien. Abbildung 1 zeigt, wie weit eine breite Palette von Rohstoffpreisen in den letzten Monaten gestiegen ist.
Die größten Preisbewegungen sind bei Erdgas und Rohöl zu verzeichnen. Und obwohl diese Bewegungen beeindruckend sind, sind einige der Treiber dieses Phänomens (in erster Linie die durch den tiefen Frost in Texas und den umliegenden US-Bundesstaaten verursachte Produktionsunterbrechung) wahrscheinlich nur vorübergehend.
In der Zwischenzeit könnten die treibenden Kräfte hinter dem Aufschwung der Industriemetalle mehr Langlebigkeit haben. Interessanterweise haben die Beschleunigung der US-Erzeugerpreise im Januar und ein starker ISM-Index für die Preise des verarbeitenden Gewerbes angedeutet, dass die Anbieter über eine Preisgestaltungsmacht für eine Reihe von Vormaterialien wie Metalle, Chemikalien und Kunststoffe verfügen.
In Anbetracht der oben genannten Dynamik sollte ein Sektor besonders profitieren: Rohstoffe.
Abbildung 1: S&P GSCI Single Commodity – MTD Performance (%)
Was treibt die Metallpreise?
Die wesentlichen Gründe für diesen Anstieg liegen in der starken Nachfrage, die vor allem von China getrieben wird. Darüber hinaus haben sich die Bewegungen auf globaler Ebene zunehmend synchronisiert, da die Schwerindustrie beginnt, sich zu erholen. Das eingeschränkte Angebot aufgrund von Produktions- und Lieferkettenunterbrechungen durch die COVID-Pandemie hat den Preis ebenfalls gestützt.
Kupfer ist besonders interessant. Es ist eines der meistverwendeten Industriemetalle, wobei fast die Hälfte der weltweiten Kupfernachfrage auf China entfällt. Die Preise des Metalls sind seit den Tiefstständen im letzten Jahr um mehr als 80 % gestiegen. Schätzungen gehen davon aus, dass der Preis weiter steigen könnte, basierend auf:
- Verwendung im Bauwesen und Hausbau, in der Elektronik und bei Automobilen - diese Faktoren machen das Metall zu einem wichtigen Wirtschaftseröffnungsspiel für Investoren.
- Bedeutung für die Produktion von Elektrofahrzeugen - ein typisches Elektrofahrzeug enthält 83 Kilo Kupfer (für Hochspannungskabel, Rotoren usw.), das ist viermal so viel wie bei einem Auto mit Verbrennungsmotor.
- Momentum des „grünen“ Übergangs - elektrischer Kupferdraht wird in großem Umfang in erneuerbaren Energiequellen verwendet.
- Die Lagerbestände sind auf einem Jahrzehnte-Tief - die Produktion in den Kupferminen wurde im letzten Jahr durch Stilllegungen beeinträchtigt.
Während Preiserhöhungen letztendlich wahrscheinlich zu einer Angebotsreaktion führen werden, bedeutet die übliche mehrjährige Verzögerung bei der Inbetriebnahme von Projekten, dass signifikante Produktionssteigerungen erst in einigen Jahren erfolgen werden.
Rohstoffe spielen in viele der heutigen Marktthemen hinein
Rohstoffe (insbesondere in Europa und weltweit) werden in unserem jüngsten SPDR Sector Compass als SPDR Sector Pick für Q1 2021 vorgestellt.
Werfen wir einen Blick auf den MSCI World Materials, der im Vergleich zu globalen Aktien bereits eine starke Outperformance gezeigt hat, nachdem er während der Markterholung seit Ende März 2020 stark zugelegt hat und dann in den zyklisch orientierten Märkten seit den Impfankündigungen Anfang November 2020. Unter den Branchen im Bereich Rohstoffe hat die Metall- und Bergbaubranche (35 % nach Marktkapitalisierung des MSCI World Materials) mit einer Gesamtrendite von 118 % seit den Tiefstständen im März 2020 die höchsten Erträge erzielt. Die Branchen Chemie (51 %), Container und Verpackungen (6 %) und Baustoffe (5 %) folgen dieser Branche, zeigen aber insgesamt immer noch eine Outperformance gegenüber dem breiten Index.
Diese Stabilität könnte sich fortsetzen, da die jüngsten Ergebnisse zeigen, dass sich die Bergbauunternehmen nicht nur als geschickt bei der Weitergabe von Metallpreissteigerungen erweisen, sondern die aktuellen Bedingungen ihnen auch positive Dividendenankündigungen ermöglichen (siehe: Rio Tinto, BHP Billiton und Glencore, die alle kürzlich ihre Q4-Ergebnisse vorgelegt haben).1
Es gibt weitere wichtige Themen, die den Rohstoffsektor antreiben, darunter:
- Traditionell reflationäres Spiel - der Sektor hat eine relativ hohe Empfindlichkeit gegenüber Inflation und ist gut positioniert, um Rohstoffpreissteigerungen weiterzugeben.
- Sensitivität gegenüber dem Wirtschaftswachstum - der Sektor hat auch eine relativ hohe Sensitivität gegenüber den Einkaufsmanagerindizes (beide Werte können im SPDR Sector Compass eingesehen werden). Die PMIs für das verarbeitende Gewerbe liegen jetzt in den meisten großen Ländern über 50.
- Chinesische Nachfrage - das Land ist ein Nettoimporteur von vielen Rohstoffen.
- Der Chemie-Sektor profitiert sowohl von der Nachfrage- als auch von der Angebotsdynamik - da die Aufträge im Zuge der Erholung der Industrieproduktion wieder anziehen und die Margen von den Beschränkungen auf der Angebotsseite und den niedrigen Beschaffungskosten profitieren.
- Aussichten auf fiskalische Anreize - immer noch Hoffnung auf zukünftige öffentliche Ausgaben in den USA, die Infrastrukturpläne umfassen.
- Gewinnstimmung - der Sektor sieht unterstützende Prognoseanhebungen nach einem hohen Maß an positiven Gewinnüberraschungen während der Q4-Ergebnisse und höheren Rohstoffpreisen
- Prognosen für einen schwächeren US-Dollar - dies könnte auch die Metallpreise beflügeln.
Das positive Kursmomentum, das derzeit bei den Rohstoffen zu beobachten ist, wird deutlich, wenn Sie sich unsere neue Sektor-Momentum-Karte ansehen. Fokussieren Sie sich auf europäische Rohstoffe (Europe Materials): Gehen Sie auf "Europe Sectors ETF", stellen Sie den Zeitraum auf "1 Tag" und wählen Sie "STP FP aus der Wertpapierliste", um zu sehen, wie sich der Sektor in letzter Zeit vom "Improving" zum "Leading" Quadranten bewegt hat.
Zugriff auf dieses Engagement durch Sektor-ETFs
Die Anleger haben begonnen, auf die besseren Wirtschaftsaussichten zu reagieren, indem sie zyklische Sektor-ETFs kaufen, und Rohstoffe ist der wichtigste unter ihnen.
Wir bevorzugen ein Engagement der europäischen Rohstoffe, die neben innovativen und schnell wachsenden Herstellern von Spezialchemikalien auch führende, in London notierte Bergbauunternehmen enthält. Wir ermutigen Anleger auch, über ein globales Engagement nachzudenken, das Kupferminenunternehmen mit Sitz in Australien, Kanada, den USA, Chile, Peru, Brasilien und anderswo umfasst. Der US-Sektor ist zwar auch interessant, hat aber ein geringeres Engagement in Bergbau und Spezialchemieherstellung.
Um mehr über diese Engagements zu erfahren und um die vollständige Performance-Historie zu sehen, klicken Sie bitte auf die untenstehenden Links:
SPDR MSCI Europe Materials UCITS ETF STP FP (Q1 Sector Pick)
SPDR MSCI World Materials UCITS ETF WMAT (Q1-Sektorauswahl)
SPDR S&P U.S. Materials Select Sector UCITS ETF SXLB
Flows
European-Domiciled ETP Segment Flows (Top/Bottom 5, $mn)
European-Domiciled ETP Asset Category Flows ($mn)
Sources: Bloomberg Finance L.P., for the period 11-18 February 2021. Flows are as of date indicated and should not be relied upon as current thereafter. This information should not be considered a recommendation to invest in a particular sector or to buy or sell any security shown. It is not known whether the sectors or securities shown will be profitable in the future.
1Diese Informationen sind nicht als Empfehlung zu verstehen, in einen bestimmten Sektor zu investieren oder ein dargestelltes Wertpapier zu kaufen oder zu verkaufen. Es ist nicht bekannt, ob die dargestellten Sektoren oder Wertpapiere in der Zukunft profitabel sein werden.
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Exp. Date: 28/02/2022